Two big meetings this week:
1. The CPI data will be released at 20:30 on Wednesday evening. If it is lower than expected, it will be positive, otherwise it will be negative.
2. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations at 2 a.m. Thursday, and then Powell will deliver a speech.
Old Bao is a bit of a dog. Every time before the data is released and he speaks, the market goes down. Everyone should pay attention to it. If the data is good, the market will go up!
If you want to increase your spot position, you can either wait until the CPI is favorable before increasing your position, or enter a position now to take a gamble and then increase your position after the news goes down.
A big bull market must start with a cycle of interest rate cuts!
It is expected that the market will be volatile in the next few days, and Japan will change on Wednesday!
Recent economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts: Although some recent economic data have performed well and countries such as Canada have begun to cut interest rates, we need to be aware that this is only the second quarter of this year and it is unlikely that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will choose to cut interest rates at this time.
Prediction of interest rate cut cycle
In order to regulate market expectations, it is expected that the interest rate cut cycle may continue until around September. Of course, there is also a minority possibility that a rate cut will be hyped in July, and then another rate cut will be initiated in September, thereby pushing the market to bottom out.
Market reaction These expectations are temporary speculations. We need to pay close attention to Powell's feedback and the market's reaction to it. While waiting, we can be fully prepared.
Core logic: The total market value of Bitcoin is slightly higher than the peak market value of the last bull market, and the total market value of Shanzhai is 15% lower than that of the last bull market. In other words, it is impossible for Shanzhai to rise by more than 10 times or even dozens of times in a 2-3 month period like the last bull market, otherwise the total market value of Shanzhai will be extremely exaggerated;
Before this wave of decline, the total market value of Bitcoin was about 1.4 trillion, and the total market value of Shanzhai was 760 billion. If the Shanzhai season that everyone fantasizes about comes, the total market value of Shanzhai will reach 7.6 trillion. Even those who are not good at math should be able to understand the exaggeration of this.
Many people would say not to refer to the data of the previous bull market, that this bull market will be different, that records are meant to be broken, and that fomo is unimaginable;
No matter how the market is fomo, real money is needed to pull the market up. Why do people think that the alt season has not arrived yet and why do they think that many alts are weak? The essence is that the alt market in the currency circle is only inflows and not outflows. In the past three years, new tokens have been continuously issued on the old track without any innovation;
This has led to the total market value of the altcoins being very large. It is normal to encounter strong resistance if you continue to pull up the market. You can’t always focus on the altcoins you have, you have to look at the market as a whole.
Therefore, if your copycat can earn 2-3 times the profit, don't hesitate, it is most likely the right choice to stop profit and leave;
The last crash was a memorable day. The cryptocurrency market plummeted again. Most of the copycat varieties smoothed out the gains of nearly a month in just two days. In fact, looking at the longer time period, the copycat has not risen for a long time and has been staying at the bottom. If we count from the big drop on April 13, it has been adjusted for almost two months. The big drop in the early morning of June 8 was related to the non-agricultural data released on Friday night. The market expected that the Fed’s interest rate cut would be postponed to September or even November. However, all the news was actually just a trick of the dog dealers.
Looking at the long-term cycle, most of the copycat varieties have not increased much, and are even falling.
Before the trend comes, it is actually quite difficult for most people to make money, because they have to hold positions with great difficulty and see the price go up slowly, only to see it fall back to the starting point in less than a week. I have experienced this situation many times.
All the past achievements or shortcomings will become our auxiliary experience to gain more profits, making us more comfortable when operating! The most important thing is not to be afraid, to dare to try, to trade, and to contact new things!
No one can guarantee 100% that a certain transaction will make money. Only when we enter the market, we will know that the market is like this. Faced with a decline, we should be prepared to buy the bottom in batches. Faced with an increase, we must pay attention to timely profit understanding. Secondly, we should know how to increase our positions and how to increase our positions so that we will not blindly pursue profits and chase increases, etc.
In fact, this rapid decline shows that the market liquidity is still relatively poor. It is expected that the market trend will only come when the Americans really start to flood the market with money, especially the crazy bull market of copycats!
Before that, there will be some small market trends, such as the upcoming Ethereum ETF, which will still be hyped up, and now is the perfect time to buy! After all, the decline has been almost complete, and the Ethereum series has basically returned to the starting point when the Ethereum ETF news was announced. If you don’t enter the market now, when will you? When it is hyped up again, it will be like a pie, at least doubled! Buy when it falls and sell when it rises. Remember this iron rule of operation, and you will be successful!
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