BTC exchange balances have been dropping since February-March as BTC price hit it's local top. This shows that whales might have been accumulating as price consolidates since then. It does also mean however, that it'll take less fire power to move BTC price both UP and DOWN.
From this, one can conclude that a BTC price drop will most likely just be to shake retail off so that they (whales) can buy even cheaper BTC in preparation for a later rally.