Author: Hotcoin Research
The 2024 US presidential election is about to kick off, and cryptocurrency has become an important topic of discussion for the first time, with its importance and influence reaching unprecedented heights. Both Trump and Biden, the two main candidates, have to face this rapidly emerging market and incorporate their attitudes and policy proposals towards cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.
1. Cryptocurrency: From the fringe to campaign chips
The history of cryptocurrency development can be described as a history of innovation and controversy. From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies today, cryptocurrency has gone through a process of development from scratch, from doubt to acceptance, and now gradually moving towards the mainstream. Cryptocurrency was initially just an attempt and experiment by a few technology geeks. However, as time goes by, its value and influence continue to increase, attracting more and more investors and institutions to join this emerging market.
Due to its decentralized and anonymous characteristics, cryptocurrency is also accompanied by regulatory challenges and legal disputes during its development. Governments and financial institutions have different attitudes towards it. Some countries actively accept it and try to incorporate it into the regulatory framework, while others take a strict restriction or even prohibit it.
1.1 Analysis of the political game behind Ethereum ETF
Following the approval and listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF can be said to be an important milestone in the cryptocurrency market, sending an important positive signal and marking the gradual increase in the U.S. government's acceptance of cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum.
In the initial application stage, many Ethereum ETF proposals were rejected by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for various reasons. The reasons for rejection mainly focused on the controversy over whether Ethereum is a security, market manipulation, and an imperfect regulatory framework. In the critical approval process, the competition of political forces has become an important factor, and Democratic lawmakers who have criticized similar decisions in the past have mostly remained silent. With the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaching, major political parties and candidates hope to establish an image among voters that supports technological innovation and financial market reform. The approval of the Ethereum ETF can be seen as a positive signal from the government to the cryptocurrency market, which will help win the support of young voters and the technology industry.
1.2 Cryptocurrency policy is becoming an important issue in the US election
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of discussion and a bargaining chip for voters. The attitudes and policy proposals of the two major candidates, Trump and Biden, towards cryptocurrency will not only directly affect their voter base, but may also have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.
People of color and young people were the key to Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Institutional polls show that the current cryptocurrency ownership rate of these two groups is higher than that of other groups. Whether they can win their support has become an important aspect of the struggle between Trump and Biden. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not only an investment tool, but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Especially among young voters and technology geeks, cryptocurrency has a broad support base. Therefore, both Trump and Biden have to include policy proposals on cryptocurrency in their campaign strategies to win the support of these voters.
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, crypto companies such as Coinbase and Ripple, as well as crypto-supporting venture capital firms such as a16z, have announced investments in cryptocurrency super PACs, attempting to gain a voice for the crypto industry through “cash power.”
2. US cryptocurrency policy and key points of the election
The government's policy attitude directly affects the price fluctuations and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The US government's policy attitude towards cryptocurrencies has a great impact on the trend of the global market. As a global financial center, the US policy changes not only directly affect the domestic market, but also have an important demonstration effect on global investors and regulatory policies of other countries.
In terms of regulation, the US government has always been cautious and conservative, focusing mainly on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors and preventing financial crimes. The US government regulates the cryptocurrency market through multiple agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).
2.1 Trump’s changing attitude towards cryptocurrency
During the Trump administration, the U.S. government's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone a complex evolution. Initially, the Trump administration was skeptical and negative about cryptocurrencies, believing that they lack intrinsic value and are easily used for illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly stated on Twitter that he did not like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying that they are "not currencies, their value is highly volatile and has no real basis." He also emphasized that cryptocurrencies may be used for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative attitude had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market in the early days of Trump's administration. The market reaction at the time was relatively negative, and many investors were uneasy about the future cryptocurrency policy of the United States.
Over time, the Trump administration's attitude has gradually changed. In December 2018, Trump appointed Bitcoin supporter Mick Mulvaney as White House Chief of Staff, an appointment that was seen as a signal that the Trump administration was beginning to be more open to cryptocurrencies. In addition, during his term, Trump signed several executive orders involving fintech and blockchain technology, aimed at promoting innovation and technological development.
In the 2024 election, Trump's attitude changed 180 degrees. He not only publicly expressed his support for the development of cryptocurrencies, but also made remarks about "ensuring that the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin happens in the United States." He also said that if he is re-elected president, he will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of "Silk Road", on his first day in office. Trump also accepted cryptocurrency donations during his campaign, trying to win voter support through policy adjustments. As of June 5, the value of crypto assets held by Trump's address has exceeded $30 million, thanks to the growth of his Meme coins.
However, on June 4, Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president to be convicted in U.S. history. This verdict adds an unpredictable new variable to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
2.2 Biden Administration’s Policy on Cryptocurrency
For most of the time since taking office, the Biden administration has been conservative and cautious about cryptocurrencies, focusing mainly on strengthening supervision and preventing risks. In the early days of its presidency, the Biden administration strengthened supervision of the cryptocurrency market through agencies such as the Treasury Department and the SEC, and issued a series of regulatory regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges and market participants.
As the election approaches, the Biden administration has gradually adjusted its policy stance. Recently, the Biden campaign team has begun to contact some crypto industry experts, including crypto people who Biden has rejected in the past, to seek guidance on its crypto policy. On May 23, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21), which will transfer regulatory authority over digital currencies from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the more industry-friendly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). And it will more clearly define the standards that make crypto tokens securities or commodities. Biden announced that if the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill is passed, he will not veto the bill.
In addition, another US presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., also affirmed encryption technology, saying that "cryptocurrency is a symbol of freedom and transparency." During the campaign, he bought 21 bitcoins and bought 3 bitcoins for each of his children to show his support for cryptocurrency as a trading currency.
2.3 Key time points of this US election
As the election progresses, the candidates' attitudes and policy proposals towards cryptocurrencies will have a significant impact on the market. Especially at key election nodes, candidates' policy statements and campaign activities may cause drastic market fluctuations. The following are some key time nodes in this US presidential election:
June 27: First debate
Presidential debates often have a huge impact on the election situation, and the first debate is particularly important. The candidates' attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrencies will be more exposed in the debate, and the market may react quickly based on the results of the debate.
July 15-18: Republican National Convention
The market could get a boost if Trump further clarifies his pro-cryptocurrency policies at the Republican convention, where candidates will formally accept the nomination and outline their campaign platforms.
August 19-22: Democratic National Convention
Similar to the Republican convention, the Democratic convention will see Biden formally accept the nomination. If the Biden team announces new crypto-friendly policies at the convention, it could have a positive impact on the market.
September 10: Second debate
The second debate will be an important opportunity for the candidates to further clash. Any discussion of cryptocurrency policy could cause market volatility.
November 5: National general election
The election voting day is the most critical time node. The election results will directly affect the direction of cryptocurrency policies in the next four years, and the market may fluctuate violently after the election results are announced.
December 2024: Electoral College votes
The Electoral College vote, which ultimately confirms the president-elect, is less important than Election Day but could still move markets, especially if the results are disputed.
January 20, 2025: Presidential Inauguration Day
The president-elect will be officially sworn in on this day. The new president’s inauguration speech and subsequent policy statements will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
3. Inventory of popular tokens in this US presidential election
In this US presidential election, various candidate-related cryptocurrencies have become the focus of the market, reflecting investors' expectations and confidence in the candidates' policies. These tokens are not only hype assets, but also an important way to express political stance and cultural identity.
YOURSELF ($YOURSELF)
$MAGA is a token named after Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again", which has become one of the most watched cryptocurrencies in this election. The $MAGA token not only represents Trump's political philosophy, but also closely connects supporters through blockchain technology. Since the beginning of 2024, the market performance of the $MAGA token has been very impressive, with several sharp increases.
Doland Tremp ($TREMP)
$TREMP is another popular Trump-related token, with its name cleverly playing on Trump's name. The token has received widespread attention from the market since its launch, especially in the context of Trump's repeated mention of cryptocurrencies during his campaign. The $TREMP token was originally designed to support Trump's campaign, while also providing investors with an opportunity to express their political stance.
Jeo Boden ($BODEN)
$BODEN is a token named after Joe Biden, which has also attracted much attention in this election. The purpose of issuing $Boden tokens is to support Biden's campaign and attract investors who are optimistic about Biden's cryptocurrency policies. Unlike Trump's tokens, the market performance of $BODEN tokens is relatively stable, but as Biden's policy stance on cryptocurrency has gradually become more friendly, it has also provided support for the market performance of $BODEN tokens.
DAO Governance ($PEOPLE)
The $PEOPLE token represents the concept of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). The $PEOPLE coin is the donation certificate given by ConstitutionDAO to contributors. ConstitutionDAO aims to raise funds in the form of a DAO, trying to buy the last privately owned first edition of the U.S. Constitution at the Sotheby's auction, thereby preventing the rich from owning it alone. Although the bid failed, this Constitution auction can also be seen as a challenge to traditional capital by decentralized organizations.
Populist Attributes American Coin ($USA)
American Coin ($USA) is a token with strong populist attributes. Its promotional copy is similar to the U.S. Declaration of Independence, which gives $USA more cultural and political significance. The holders of $USA tokens are mostly investors who have a strong sense of identification with American culture and history. They hope to express their political stance and cultural identity through this token.
Pepecoin ($PEPE)
The meme coin ($PEPE) is unique in the cryptocurrency market for its humorous and sarcastic features. During the US election, the $PEPE token also became a hot spot for investors. During the 2016 US election, the Pepe meme began to be associated with the US presidential election. The holders of $PEPE are mainly young investors who like humor and sarcasm, and they use this token to express their views on political and social phenomena.
8 Tokens Trump Campaign Accepts Donations
On May 22, Trump's campaign team launched the website https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto, where donors can donate to Trump's joint fundraising committee through Coinbase. Trump's team accepts donations in eight cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and 0x (ZRX). This move not only expands Trump's funding sources, but also shows his recognition and support for cryptocurrencies. After Trump announced that he would accept donations, the market reacted quickly and the prices of these tokens generally rose.
4. US Election and Crypto Policy Outlook
The impact of this US presidential election on the cryptocurrency market will be far-reaching and complex. Whether Trump is re-elected or Biden is re-elected, it will have different degrees of impact and influence on the cryptocurrency market.
4.1 Trump or Biden?
If Trump is re-elected, it can be expected that he will continue to adopt cryptocurrency-friendly policies. He has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies during the campaign and accepted cryptocurrency donations, which shows his attention and recognition of this emerging market. Trump may promote more relaxed regulatory policies, reduce restrictions on the cryptocurrency market, and encourage innovation and development. However, the Trump administration's decision-making style is often more radical and vacillating, and the market may experience violent fluctuations.
If Biden is re-elected, he may adopt a more balanced policy. During his tenure, he has shown his emphasis on cryptocurrency regulation, but he has also gradually recognized the importance of the cryptocurrency market and adjusted some policies. If Biden is re-elected, he may continue to strengthen cryptocurrency regulation. In addition, compared with Trump, Biden's policy style is relatively mild and stable, and the market may show higher stability.
According to a Paradigm survey, cryptocurrency holders this year prefer Trump to Biden, with a ratio of 48% to 39%, and 13% are undecided.
4.2 Outlook for US Encryption Policy
In the next few years, the US government's policy direction in the field of cryptocurrency will continue to affect the development of the global market. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, the following two major policy trends may gradually emerge:
1. Encourage innovation and application of blockchain technology: Recognize the potential and innovation of cryptocurrency technology, especially its application in finance, logistics, and healthcare, adopt a more rational and transparent attitude, and regulators should be more actively involved in the development of cryptocurrency to protect the public interest, rather than viewing cryptocurrency as a threat.
2. Improvement of the regulatory framework: In the future, the US government will further improve the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, including market manipulation monitoring, anti-money laundering measures, transparent trading rules, and investor protection mechanisms.
3. Tax policy adjustments: As the cryptocurrency market expands, the government may adjust its tax policies to better manage and collect taxes on cryptocurrency transactions.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, cryptocurrencies will play an increasingly important role in this political game. In the coming months, we will witness the further advancement of cryptocurrencies in politics, economy, and society, and observe how they affect election results and market trends. Investors need to pay close attention to policy dynamics and develop scientific investment strategies to cope with the uncertain market environment and seize potential investment opportunities.
Hotcoin is paying close attention to the progress of the US election and its potential impact on the crypto market. It has launched $MAGA, $TREMP, $PEOPLE, $PEPE, and 8 tokens donated by the Trump team (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and ZRX), and will continue to monitor and launch related high-quality assets. For crypto investment, come to Hotcoin, get the hottest high-quality assets first and be one step ahead!
