I have a cold and a headache and don't want to write anything. I will simply review last night's non-agricultural data and the possible direction of the dot plot later.
First of all, the unemployment rate exceeded the expectations of many investors and rose to 4%. This is indeed in line with the expectations of the Federal Reserve. Generally speaking, the rise in unemployment rate leads to a decline in employment, but employment has risen significantly. There is nothing to say about this data (but the Federal Reserve has falsified data more than once or twice).
Last time, Powell said that if it exceeds 4%, the pace of interest rate cuts will be reconsidered (meaning to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts). 4% is indeed in line with Powell's statement. Whether it will be adjusted due to unemployment rate depends on the decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week and the dot plot.
However, I think it is highly likely that the dot plot will become 2 interest rate cuts. The question is whether the market has already priced in? If not, it will have to be adjusted. However, the current data is really weird. In the past, there were fewer such contradictory situations. It also increased, but the unemployment rate rose. Is immigration + epidemic finally normal? Or have the Americans spent all the money issued by the government before, their savings have bottomed out, and they have returned to employment? It's a bit messy
