June 5 Macroeconomic data forecast interpretation: 3. US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI attention ★★★
US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a comprehensive industry data other than manufacturing, and users measure the economic trend index other than manufacturing.
Non-manufacturing accounts for 80% of US GDP, and the index is also one of the reference indicators for measuring US inflation pressure.
Data influence: Single data ★★ Impact on short-term inflation expectations ★★★
Data credibility: ★★
50 is the data prosperity line. Above 50, it means that the non-manufacturing industry is expanding, and below 50 proves that it is shrinking.
Release time: 22:00
Data: Previous value 49.4 Expected 50.8, the market expects that the non-manufacturing industry is expanding rapidly.
Impact:
Higher than expected, higher than the previous value, the non-manufacturing industry is expanding rapidly, and economic activities are frequent, which is beneficial to the US economy and unfavorable to the risk market.
Lower than expected, higher than the previous value, the non-manufacturing industry stands firmly on the 50 prosperity line, and the non-manufacturing industry continues to maintain stable growth, which is not conducive to inflation control and risk markets.
Lower than expected and previous values, non-manufacturing continues to run below the 50 boom-bust line, the overall situation is shrinking, expectations for the US economy are getting worse, but it is conducive to inflation control.
The first two effects will be good for US stocks, but bad for the overall risk market. If it is lower than the previous value, it will be bad for US stocks in the short term, but it will be good for risk markets in the long term.
Logic:
Non-manufacturing data shows the economic status of the United States from a certain perspective. If the economic status begins to decline, it will be good for inflation control and the market's optimistic expectations for the Fed's short-term interest rate cuts in the future, but the short-term economic downturn will be a pressure on US stock companies. On the contrary, if the data shows that non-manufacturing continues to expand, then the US economy will continue to accelerate, which is not conducive to inflation control and interest rate cuts.
Note:
This data is also one of the reference data for US economic activities and inflation control pressure, but this week it is also only used as a record, not as an important market reference, but this data may affect the subsequent adjustment parameters for US inflation expectations in May.
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US S&P Global Services PMI final value in May, this data is an indicator to measure the changes in the business environment of the US service industry in a specified month. The index is usually interpreted as a forward-looking indicator of service industry activity and inflation index.
The service industry accounts for 70% of US GDP. Frequent service industry activities may lead to increased service industry consumption and increased inflationary pressure.
Data influence: ★★
Data credibility: ★★
Release time: 21:45
Data: Previous value 54.8, expected 54.8, the market expects the final value of the service industry in May to be the same as last month.
Impact:
The data is higher than or equal to the previous value, the US service industry continues to heat up or remain strong, which is not conducive to inflation control in May (services are only part of the inflation factor)
The data is lower than the expected value and the previous value, the US service industry cooled down in May, and the economic activity of the service industry decreased, which is conducive to inflation control.
Logic:
The service industry is one of the important factors affecting US inflation. From the PCE in April, we can see that although the pressure of energy and commodity inflation has decreased, the pressure of the service industry is still high, resulting in the PCE in April still showing the pressure of inflation control. Therefore, if the service industry cools down, it will be more beneficial to inflation control and conducive to optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
However, if the data is lower than the previous expected value, it will also be unfavorable to the stock prices of US service companies in the short term.
At the same time, the value remains above the 50 prosperity value, proving that the US service industry is still in an expansionary state.
Note:
This value is currently only used for observation and recording. If it is positive, the risk market will bring more help to the rise. On the contrary, if it is negative, its impact can basically be ignored. At present, the focus of this week is still employment data. This value can only be used as a reference value for measuring May inflation data in the later period.
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