June 5 Macroeconomic data forecast interpretation: 2. US S&P Global Services PMI final value in May. Attention ★★★
US S&P Global Services PMI final value in May, this data is an indicator to measure the changes in the business environment of the US service industry in a specified month. The index is usually interpreted as a forward-looking indicator of service industry activity and inflation index.
The service industry accounts for 70% of US GDP. Frequent service industry activities may lead to increased service industry consumption and increased inflationary pressure.
Data influence: ★★
Data credibility: ★★
Release time: 21:45
Data: Previous value 54.8, expected 54.8, the market expects the final value of the service industry in May to be the same as last month.
Impact:
The data is higher than or equal to the previous value, the US service industry continues to heat up or remain strong, which is not conducive to inflation control in May (services are only part of the inflation factor)
The data is lower than the expected value and the previous value, the US service industry cooled down in May, and the economic activity of the service industry decreased, which is conducive to inflation control.
Logic:
The service industry is one of the important factors affecting US inflation. From the PCE in April, we can see that although the pressure of energy and commodity inflation has decreased, the pressure of the service industry is still high, resulting in the PCE in April still showing the pressure of inflation control. Therefore, if the service industry cools down, it will be more beneficial to inflation control and conducive to optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
However, if the data is lower than the previous expected value, it will also be unfavorable to the stock prices of US service companies in the short term.
At the same time, the value remains above the 50 prosperity value, proving that the US service industry is still in an expansionary state.
Note:
This value is currently only used for observation and recording. If it is positive, the risk market will bring more help to the rise. On the contrary, if it is negative, its impact can basically be ignored. At present, the focus of this week is still employment data. This value can only be used as a reference value for measuring May inflation data in the later period.
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US ADP employment in May (10,000 people), commonly known as small non-farm. The data is obtained by anonymous interviews with 500,000 companies by the US ADP company.
This data is a monthly indicator to measure the changes in non-farm employment in the US private sector, which partially reflects the current employment data in the United States.
Data influence: single data influence ★★, combined with the current market sentiment influence ★★★
Data credibility: ★★ After all, it has been contrary to the big non-farm data many times before, and people have questioned the data falsification.
Release time: 20:15
Data: The previous value was 192,000, and the expected value was 175,000. The market expects the employment market to cool down
Impact:
Higher than expected, equal to or higher than the previous value, bearish risk market, BTC fell slightly.
Higher than expected, lower than the previous value, slightly bearish, BTC fluctuates 500-1000 points
Equal to expectations, lower than the previous value, good for risk markets, BTC rises to test and try to break through resistance to stimulate trading volume
Lower than expected, significantly lower than the previous value, big positive for risk markets, Bitcoin rises rapidly in the short term, breaks through key resistance, and stimulates a large amount of market trading volume.
Logic: Part of the ADP data can affect the impact on US employment data. Low data, cooling of the employment market, and increased unemployment probability. The current unemployment rate of 3.9% may help push the unemployment rate to 4%. At the same time, the cooling of the employment market will help control inflationary pressure and increase optimistic expectations of interest rates, that is, more and faster interest rate cuts in 24 years. Thus, it is good for risk markets.
However, this data will cause negative impact on US stocks in the short term, because the cooling of the employment market also indicates a decline in the operating conditions and business activities of US companies.
Note:
When the ADP data comes from the human resources system of ADP's customers, its statistical results have limitations and cannot directly represent all non-agricultural employment situations. Therefore, the data reflection results are not absolute. It can judge the US employment situation. To see accurate non-agricultural employment data, you still have to look at Friday's big non-agricultural data.
However, it is precisely because of this that if the ADP data is negative, the current price of Bitcoin will not fall too much. It may be a short-term decline and fluctuation, because people can wait for more accurate employment data on Friday. Optimistic expectations remain, and the negative data will not allow the price to fall. On the contrary, if it is positive, the effect will be greater and more powerful, helping BTC to break through key resistance and stand firm.
After the data is released tonight, the results will be interpreted again according to the situation.
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