Economic data will be released tonight. Let's review the data release.
The US JOLTs job vacancies in April (10,000 people) were announced at 805.9, which is in line with my expectations of a cooling job market.
The US factory orders monthly rate in April was announced at 0.7%, which is in line with my expectations.
(I'll just pretend to be 13)
As mentioned in the previous article, the US factory orders data in April are bearish, but in the long run, the reduction in orders is a positive. However, there is still a threat of stagflation, which we won't discuss here.
Let's focus on the job vacancy data in April. Although it is data from April, based on the changes in the data, we can make an expected analysis of a series of data in May.
Let's talk about the job vacancy data in April first. The data comes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:
The labor market remained relatively stable in April, and it weakened compared with the same period last year, but the overall situation is still at a high level. From the data, the employment data is slightly weakened.
Job vacancies: Job vacancies in health care and social assistance, as well as local government and education sectors, have declined. There may be many factors that contribute to the decline in job openings, but job reductions can also lead to short-term tight supply and demand for employment, and even increase service fees. In the PCE data for April, we saw data pressure from the service industry.
Recruitment: In April, the number of people hired in the durable goods manufacturing industry increased, while that in the arts, entertainment, leisure and federal government decreased.
Resignation: In April, the total number of resignations remained roughly the same, totaling 5.4 million, of which 3.5 million were voluntary resignations and 1.5 million were involuntary resignations (dismissals, layoffs). Among them, the number of people who resigned in the durable goods manufacturing industry and government education was relatively large, while the number of people who resigned in professional and business services decreased.
From the above data, it can be seen that job vacancies in the service industry and government departments have decreased, recruitment has decreased, and resignations have decreased relatively (government department resignations have increased), indicating that the service industry is still a relatively stable industry in the United States, and more people are willing to work in the service industry steadily. However, the reduction in jobs and recruitment also proves that the current economic outlook in the United States is not particularly optimistic. At the same time, the relatively strong labor market has reduced the difficulty of recruitment, resulting in a relative slowdown in recruitment in the service industry, which will also indirectly push up the cost of the service industry and related expenses.
However, the overall reduction in job vacancies also proves that the labor market is gradually slowing down, which will help curb inflation and boost tomorrow's small non-farm data and Friday's unemployment rate and large non-farm data. Now, stimulated by the data, the US stock market has maintained a small decline, but the crypto market Bitcoin sentiment has broken through 70,000. If tomorrow's small non-farm data further consolidates the expectation of a recession in employment data, then this week's expectations for optimistic interest rate cuts this year will be further pushed up, which will also affect the rise of risk markets.
LIVE
Two US economic data will be released at 22:00 tonight. The single effect of the two data will not have much impact on the market, but under the current market sentiment, it may trigger more positive emotions and speculations, boosting the market.
US JOLTs job vacancies in April (10,000 people), the full name of which is the job vacancies and labor mobility survey report, including important indicators such as job vacancies, employment, layoffs, and voluntary resignation rates. The previous value was 8.488 million, and the expected value was 835.5, which is expected to cool down the job market.
This data is single, and independent data does not have the ability to stimulate the market. However, it coincides with the non-agricultural data this week and the unemployment rate on Friday. Once the data is lower than the expected value and the previous value, it will represent a significant cooling of the US labor market and an increase in the unemployment rate. Once the data pushes the US unemployment rate to 4%, it will directly stimulate the market to actively talk about the possibility of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
In the short term, there is a stimulating decline in US stocks, but in the long run, risk markets including the crypto market will benefit under the expectation of interest rate cuts.
The monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in April represents the number of orders for non-perishable items in the next month. This data reflects the situation of manufacturing activities. The previous value was 0.8% (1.6% before correction), and the expected value was 0.6%.
The previous value was doubled after correction, and the actual data of the previous value fell sharply, with an expected value of 0.6%. Under the condition that the previous value data was significantly lowered, the order data in April may not fall sharply. It is very likely to be in line with or higher than expectations, lower than or equal to the previous value. 0.7% may be a more appropriate value.
The data of orders in April was lower than the previous value again, which also means that the business activities in the United States have decreased, the economy has weakened, and the inflationary pressure has weakened. Combined with the direction of the recent macro sentiment guidance, it is bearish for US stocks in the short term, and it is beneficial to the risk market to cut interest rates in the long term.
In fact, the above two data will not have too much stimulation in a single case, but the current macro sentiment in the United States, the decline in national energy, the adjustment of domestic energy, and the decline in manufacturing will lead to a rise in commodity prices in the short term, but it also has the effect of curbing inflation. At the same time, if the service industry data cools down, the pressure of US inflation will be greatly reduced.
At the same time, if the employment market data cools down again this week and the unemployment rate is pushed up or even directly pushed up to 4%, then the possibility of the Fed talking about rate cuts as soon as possible will be greatly increased, and the expectation of rate cuts in September will also be raised from the current 50% to a higher level. The risk market will rise again under the stimulus of the expectation of rate cuts.
Of course, whether the current decline in manufacturing and the increase in inflationary pressure will lead to stagflation still needs more economic data to confirm. If multiple data prove that inflation is being effectively controlled and reduced, then the possibility of stagflation will be reduced.
#BTC走势分析 #美国6月经济数据
