Pay attention to the macroeconomic data tonight: US orders and job vacancies in April.
Two US economic data will be released at 22:00 tonight. The single effect of the two data will not have much impact on the market, but under the current market sentiment, it may trigger more positive emotions and speculations, boosting the market.
US JOLTs job vacancies in April (10,000 people), the full name of which is the job vacancies and labor mobility survey report, including important indicators such as job vacancies, employment, layoffs, and voluntary resignation rates. The previous value was 8.488 million, and the expected value was 835.5, which is expected to cool down the job market.
This data is single, and independent data does not have the ability to stimulate the market. However, it coincides with the non-agricultural data this week and the unemployment rate on Friday. Once the data is lower than the expected value and the previous value, it will represent a significant cooling of the US labor market and an increase in the unemployment rate. Once the data pushes the US unemployment rate to 4%, it will directly stimulate the market to actively talk about the possibility of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
In the short term, there is a stimulating decline in US stocks, but in the long run, risk markets including the crypto market will benefit under the expectation of interest rate cuts.
The monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in April represents the number of orders for non-perishable items in the next month. This data reflects the situation of manufacturing activities. The previous value was 0.8% (1.6% before correction), and the expected value was 0.6%.
The previous value was doubled after correction, and the actual data of the previous value fell sharply, with an expected value of 0.6%. Under the condition that the previous value data was significantly lowered, the order data in April may not fall sharply. It is very likely to be in line with or higher than expectations, lower than or equal to the previous value. 0.7% may be a more appropriate value.
The data of orders in April was lower than the previous value again, which also means that the business activities in the United States have decreased, the economy has weakened, and the inflationary pressure has weakened. Combined with the direction of the recent macro sentiment guidance, it is bearish for US stocks in the short term, and it is beneficial to the risk market to cut interest rates in the long term.
In fact, the above two data will not have too much stimulation in a single case, but the current macro sentiment in the United States, the decline in national energy, the adjustment of domestic energy, and the decline in manufacturing will lead to a rise in commodity prices in the short term, but it also has the effect of curbing inflation. At the same time, if the service industry data cools down, the pressure of US inflation will be greatly reduced.
At the same time, if the employment market data cools down again this week and the unemployment rate is pushed up or even directly pushed up to 4%, then the possibility of the Fed talking about rate cuts as soon as possible will be greatly increased, and the expectation of rate cuts in September will also be raised from the current 50% to a higher level. The risk market will rise again under the stimulus of the expectation of rate cuts.
Of course, whether the current decline in manufacturing and the increase in inflationary pressure will lead to stagflation still needs more economic data to confirm. If multiple data prove that inflation is being effectively controlled and reduced, then the possibility of stagflation will be reduced.
