Let the data speak: Before the PCE is released, the market continues to maintain a relatively calm "accumulation of momentum"
In fact, today's data is basically unchanged compared to yesterday's data. We just serve as a record.
It can be seen that the positive data tonight has made Bitcoin's market value share suck blood from the cottage again, and the market risk preference has deteriorated again.
Before each data is released, the market is basically waiting for the "big brother" Bitcoin to go out of the trend before the cottage will follow, especially tomorrow Friday to release the data. If Bitcoin rises again, the cottage will have a chance to turn around at the weekend.
The data released today has led to more optimistic expectations for tomorrow's PCE data, but the funds retained in the market have basically not changed for the time being. The net inflow of about 100 million off-site funds has basically entered the market transaction, but the inflow of Asian funds has decreased, and the US funds have flowed in for the first time this week. The mood is gradually improving. If the US funds continue to flow back to the crypto market after the US stock market closes in the early morning, there will be more expectations for tomorrow's PCE index release.
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Although there were many "large fluctuations" that many contract traders considered today, coupled with the revision of GDP data and the release of initial jobless claims data in the evening, the crypto market also fluctuated in the short term, but at present, the fluctuation is still in the oscillation range of the 1-hour Bollinger Band, and it has not even broken through the lower track trend of the 4-hour. Therefore, this type of fluctuation is still not considered an outbreak under the long-term sluggish market this week. Before the release of PCE data, the market is still "accumulating momentum".
So today, we will just make a simple point update for the disk situation of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin: Daily support moves up,
As shown in the figure, the daily Bollinger Band midline support has moved up to 67,000 so far. Although the price fluctuates at a high level, the effective support below continues to move up, which reduces the price decline space and the risk of decline in the short term. In the absence of effective negative factors, the support will still play an effective role.
At the same time, the price frequently shuttled up and down around the key position of the 68,000 monthly line, which also caused the turnover of chips. The chips that have experienced turnover are conducive to the stability of the area and still help the short-term price decline risk. Of course, if there is obvious negative sentiment, it is another matter.
The RSI index is currently around 57, which is a normal volatility index. If the price rises and the index breaks through 70, you should pay attention to the risk of short-term probability correction.
Ethereum: Although it falls, it is not "declining"
The price of Ethereum has fluctuated and fallen continuously this week, and its decline is greater than that of Bitcoin. Many people also feel thrilling, but in fact, although the price of Ethereum has fallen, the technical trend is still more optimistic than BTC, and the price is still above the monthly support of 3560.
The core reason why Ethereum has a large fluctuation is still due to the short-term price "rapid expansion" brought about by the preliminary review stage of the ETF. It can be seen from the daily Bollinger Bands that the amplitude is large. In the absence of continuous positive promotion, the technical side needs to repair the shape. As long as the key monthly support is not broken, it is not considered "declining", and it continues to fluctuate and consolidate above the support. After the repair is completed, it will be more conducive to the stability of the price in this range.
The RSI index is 63, which is in the normal fluctuation range. However, compared with Bitcoin, the index is more favorable. If the market rises tomorrow, Ethereum will reach the risk of overbought probability correction more quickly in the short term.
#BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件
