Macroeconomics and news:
This week's focus is Friday's PCE data. I did an analysis and forecast last weekend. My expectation is that the PCE data will not improve, which means consolidating the optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts this year. Of course, the data will not directly be negative. Just like the Fed's recent "Tai Chi" Kung Fu, the data regulation may be slightly higher than expected, with a small negative impact, but the market reaction will not be too large, and the difficulty and pressure of inflation control will continue to be emphasized.
In fact, there is something I want to say, and it's like opening a special topic. Instead of discussing when the Fed will cut interest rates, we might as well discuss what harm will be caused by the Fed's interest rate cut, and then see whether these harms are eliminated one by one, so as to reverse the Fed's interest rate cut. After all, the central banks of various countries are all worried about the Fed's interest rate cut. Maybe we can use reverse thinking appropriately.
Of course, there is a small probability that Friday's data will be significantly negative, but at present, the previous data does not support it, so the probability is small. As long as the market does not break the optimistic expectation of this year's interest rate cut, the small negative impact of the basic single PCE data may just test the support of BTC/ETH.
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Due to the "laziness" on Tuesday, we have no statistical data, but the data on Tuesday is indeed relatively low. Today's data is compared with Monday.
Under the decline of the overall market value, the risk preference in the market has changed. Although Bitcoin has fallen, the proportion of cottages has remained high due to the activeness of individual sectors. Compared with Monday, the proportion of cottages has increased, absorbing the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum. It shows that the market is not too pessimistic about the current decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum, but actively participates in cottage transactions.
In terms of trading volume, the difference is not big compared with the data on Monday, and the small increase indicates that the market as a whole maintains a stable turnover in the decline. The decline consumes selling pressure and also consumes longs. From the perspective of trading volume, traders also maintain a stable trading posture, and there is no short-term emotional outbreak and release. The market is still waiting for the macro-emotional guidance on Friday.
In terms of the most important funds, the stable currency funds in the market are less than 700 million, which is caused by the entry of funds into the trading market. At present, this fund is temporarily trapped.
The increase in USDT in Asia and Europe was relatively small, compared with the increase of 93 million US dollars on Monday.
The funds in the US area decreased by 433 million. According to the transaction volume and the issuance and repurchase data of the USDC official website, the missing funds did not flow out but intervened in market transactions. At present, according to the repurchase data on the official website, USDC repurchase has not increased. Of course, the USDC market retention has continued to decrease. In addition to intervening in transactions, US funds have not flowed into the market again.
Although US funds have not flowed out, the recent suspension of inflows also means that the mood of US traders is in a relatively depressed wait-and-see period. Wait for the pce data on Friday to see the situation of US funds.
#BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件
