Can Bitcoin create another historical myth? When will the funds in the alt market return?

Yesterday, Bitcoin hit 70,000 US dollars, and then fell back to 68,000 US dollars. Ethereum hit 3,977 and fell back. The overall market sentiment was obviously optimistic, and local concepts were released. In addition to the meme sector, new Binance coins headed by not appeared, all of which pulled the market to varying degrees. These are all precursors to the market gradually entering opportunities.

Let's talk about the logic. From a macro perspective, there are relatively certain trend opportunities before the election. Although interest rate cuts may be repeated, the result is inevitable. Europe may start to cut interest rates around June. This is a good thing for the global capital market, which will increase liquidity. So whether the bull market is there or not, it is bound to be there. In the short term, finding some new good opportunities is the only thing to do. At present, the water in the market is not enough to flood, so it is basically a sector rotation. When funds are crowded with memes, other sectors need to wait for signals, but when Ethereum starts to start, the alt market will be more optimistic, so I think the alt season will not be far away.

This morning, the market fell back again:

Why did this happen? Three reasons

1. The currency in Mentougou has started to move. More than 8,000 BTC worth 500 million have been withdrawn from the Mentougou wallet to an unknown wallet. Is the black swan really coming? Billions of BTC will be paid out before October this year, which is terrible.  

2. 70000 is only a stone's throw away from the high point of 72000. There are a lot of locked-in plates above. The locked-in plates in March and April this year and the locked-in plates in 21 years have experienced the panic of the plunge. It is not easy to rise back. The locked-in plates must be released. As long as they reach this position, they will be easily smashed down.  Therefore, if there is no super big positive, 70,000 is difficult to break. BTC at this price has also lost its appeal. At present, it is better to buy ETH than BTC. ETH at least has positives.

3. Before the release of the US PCE data for April on Friday night, big funds dare not act rashly. They are all waiting for the PCE data. If the data is lower than expected, they will buy in. Therefore, before Friday, the market is likely to fluctuate. According to past rules, the possibility of a fall before the data is released is greater.

There are a total of 14,200 bitcoins in the Mentougou wallet, about 10 billion US dollars. At present, the chain is aggregated. If compensation really starts, there is nothing to worry about. First of all, today's market volume will not have a big problem digesting 10 billion US dollars, because there are ETFs, and the market capital volume is much larger than before.Secondly, the compensation will not be paid all at once, but will definitely be paid in installments and batches, so even if all the stocks are smashed, it will not be completed instantly.

Mentougou's compensation is short-term negative and long-term positive. The short-term decline will not affect the concept of trend, and the violent bull market in the second half of the year has not changed. At present, the 4-hour level needs to continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the originally opened upward channel has been destroyed again. Next, focus on the position of 66,000. If the 4-hour level falls to this position again, then the short-term will enter the decline verification support mode again.

There are positive events in June that stimulate sentiment:

First, in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the QT speed in June, and the monthly reduction of US debt will slow down to US$25 billion and maintain the US$35 billion MBS ceiling unchanged. To put it bluntly, although there is no water release, the water output has become less, which means that the water has become more, which is of course essentially more liquidity (money).

Will this positive news stimulate a surge in the risk market? BTC breaks through the previous high of 73,700? Here we first look at the current data of BTC long-term holders. As shown in the figure below. (The black line is the trend of BTC, and the orange line is the trend of BTC long-term holders)

At present, long-term holders have begun to increase their holdings, which means that long-term holders are not interested in the current price and have no overflow funds. There is still no big market for altcoins.

The previous question, can it break through the previous high?

Personally, I think it is not hopeless. I believe that there will be money flowing into BTC to drive the rise, but the macro data is still there, and both good and bad news will stimulate emotions.

(You can pay attention to the inflow of stablecoins in June. Although continuous inflow does not mean that the price will definitely rise, it will definitely not be very bad. There is also the inflow data of ETFs, which is the most direct feedback indicator of emotions, that is, the trend from 1 am to 6 am Beijing time on weekdays)

To put it simply, if it can break 73,700, it may not continue to rise much, so the overflow funds are limited. There is still no hope for a big market for altcoins in June.

Instead, we can also look forward to the second event that stimulates emotions: Can the S1/S3 of ETH's ETF be approved in June and can it start trading?

If it can, it means that in the absence of a macro impact on sentiment, funds will flow into ETH, and perhaps it can drive a wave of market conditions in the ETH ecological sector, including the meme on ETH. If it does not pass, ETH will not rise sharply, but as expected, it will definitely not fall sharply, and the sentiment is still ok. It is estimated that the rotation of the copycat sector is still in the meme sector. Isn’t pepe a new high, and there are also new popular memes recently.

Of course, it does not mean that there are no opportunities in other sectors of the copycat, but there is no opportunity for large fluctuations like the meme sector. The low point of BTC is the low point of the copycat. When BTC breaks away from the low position and starts to rise, the copycat will naturally have a market. BTC does not rise much, so the rotation of large capital sectors is naturally limited.

#ETH #5月市场关键事件 #山寨币热点 #新币挖矿 #BTC走势分析

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