Pay attention to today's market: pay attention to the breakthrough of resistance level, beware of technical false breakthrough!
Although the US stock market is closed tonight and the macro sentiment has not had a positive driving effect, it is now the turn of Bitcoin after Ethereum completed a technical breakthrough at the weekend. Since it has risen, we should pay more attention to the situation of resistance level.
Bitcoin: 2 resistance, 1 key, 1 support.
Bitcoin has begun to break upward after the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger bands have contracted. In the short term, pay attention to the 72,400 daily line resistance level. After breaking through this position, look at the previous high of 73,777 in the past 23 years.
Pay attention to the key position of the 68,800 monthly line support when falling back, and the optimistic support level of the daily line is around 66,000.
Why 68,800 is a key position, because Bitcoin in its current state is a technical breakthrough, and after the breakthrough, it does not bring much trading volume support, so we must pay attention to the risk of falling back, and this position of the monthly line happens to be a very important short-term support level.
The RSI index rose to around 66, and in the short term, pay attention to the overbought correction sentiment after reaching 70.
Ethereum: Pay attention to 2 resistances and 2 supports under stability.
Although Ethereum has performed poorly after ETF and has not risen much, it has not fallen much either. The liquidity is low but the price is extremely solid. At present, it is frequently rising steadily and preparing to test the integer resistance level of 4000, which needs special attention. Generally, the integer level may stimulate a certain amount of buying and selling volume. Attention should be paid to the stimulation of selling volume when it rises.
If it breaks through the integer level and stabilizes, then the daily historical high of 4093.32 from 23 years to now needs to be tested.
For a short-term decline, pay attention to the daily support of 3800 and the monthly support of 3600.
The RSI index has completely broken through 70 and reached a high of 88. The sentiment has been in a high state. Pay attention to the risk of reversal of short-term sentiment.
Although the current Bitcoin and Ethereum market looks optimistic, we still need to pay attention to the market data, especially the trading volume. We need to pay attention to whether there is a good increase in the rise. If the increase is small, it means that the possibility of a single technical breakthrough, that is, a false breakthrough, increases. After the false breakthrough, it is generally accompanied by a technical shock callback, and it is difficult for a technical breakthrough to break through the key resistance level.
LIVE
Focus 1, Europe, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates next month, but the policy remains tight. With rising wages, Europe's inflation has a rebound trend, and with the interest rate difference after the interest rate cut, Europe must be cautious. Of course, in theory they don't want to cut interest rates, but without the strength of the United States, they can't withstand the pressure of high interest rates. However, after Europe cuts interest rates, it will further consolidate the strength of the US index through a basket of currencies.
Today, European stocks performed mediocrely. After all, it is normal to be in a bad state when the leader is resting.
Focus 2, the US dollar index rebounded after a slight decline at the opening today, and currently remains around 104.6. At this time, the 10-year period fluctuated slightly during the day, rising after the opening and then fluctuating and falling, and is currently rebounding again.
The exchange rate of the US dollar to the Japanese yen showed a fluctuating downward trend during the day. Here I want to say that many people said that Japan was going to collapse. In fact, don't forget that Japan's current overseas assets are heavier than domestic assets, and the ratio is basically 1:1.2. Therefore, the low-price route of the Japanese yen does not necessarily mean that Japan will collapse in the short term. Of course, you can be pessimistic about Japan in the big cycle. (No reason needed)
The exchange rate of USD to RMB surged during the day and then fell back in shock. It is now rising again, but the offshore exchange rate has basically remained stable with the regulatory policy. I heard from some news that a lot of foreign capital is currently buying up domestic 10-year government bonds. Hong Kong has been a bit popular recently.
Focus three, Asian stock markets, A shares, Hang Seng, and Nikkei indexes have all closed higher, and the gains of the three major stock markets have all exceeded the closing price last Friday.
Focus four, international gold/crude oil, gold once surged to a record high last Monday and then fell rapidly, but stabilized around 2,300 last week and started a new round of rebound this week. As for the rise in gold prices, we can actually find that geopolitical factors have little impact on the price trend of gold as long as they do not involve the possibility of S3. In fact, the biggest factor affecting the price of gold at present comes from the US dollar, which is the decline of the US dollar's credit system in the world as I said before, resulting in a large amount of US dollar capital outflow, or direct purchase of gold, of course, including purchases by central banks of various countries.The decline of gold is also full of games. JPMorgan Chase has been shorting gold above 2000. I believe that JPMorgan Chase also participated in the decline of this historical high.
Suppressing the short-term rise in gold prices is actually a defensive measure against the outflow of US dollar capital, but the current price of gold is obviously supported by someone around 2300, and the trend of gold will continue to strengthen in the future. At the same time, there is a possibility that the party that controls a large amount of gold resources in the future can redefine the new currency. Of course, this is a future concept and does not need to be true for the time being.
The price of crude oil is affected by many factors such as production and transportation. Although it has stabilized near 82 recently, it is still full of risk. We have said before that the International Monetary Fund once proposed a concept that for every $10 increase in crude oil prices, global economic growth will slow by 2%, which is already a very scary data.
In fact, it is not just gold, crude oil, and the prices of many bulk commodities have actually remained high recently. On the surface, it seems to have nothing to do with the crypto market, but this high-pressure state is a challenge to the economy and financial markets. You can say that it has no direct relationship with the crypto market, but indirectly, the crypto market as a risk market will eventually be deeply affected.
#BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件 $BTC $ETH
