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Weekly Review
This week, from May 20 to May 27, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $71,979 and the lowest was close to $67,969, with a fluctuation range of about 7%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 65,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 980,000 pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.08 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
JPMorgan Chase said: Strong results from artificial intelligence darling Nvidia and steady economic growth mean the S&P 500 may have further room to rise.
Bank of America data showed that $10.5 billion flowed into the U.S. stock market in the past week; cryptocurrency funds attracted the fifth largest inflow on record, reaching $1.4 billion.
Waller, a popular candidate for the next head of the Federal Reserve, believes that the possibility of a re-acceleration of inflation can be ruled out. If the data supports it, a rate cut may be considered at the end of the year. The idea of cutting interest rates only once does not make much sense. The April inflation data showed that progress toward the 2% target may have resumed, and the lack of acceleration in inflation is a reassuring signal.
Encrypted ecological news
The U.S. House of Representatives voted for the first time on the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), a bill that aims to reshape the digital asset regulatory landscape, give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) greater authority over the digital asset spot market, and create new jurisdictional boundaries for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Grayscale ETH Trust (ETHE) had a trading volume of US$687 million on the 21st, a new high since May 21. The previous high was US$842 million on May 19, 2021.
Nick Forster, founder of Lyra and former Wall Street options trader, said that the options market shows that the probability of ETH reaching $5,000 before June 28 is about 20%, and the probability of exceeding $5,500 before July 26 is also 20%.
Nasdaq documents show that BlackRock submitted a revised 19B-4 form for ETH spot ETF, which will exclude ETH pledge. Bitwise submitted a revised 196-4 form, planning to launch an ETH ETF on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Gary Gensle, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reiterated in his speech that the cryptocurrency market is rife with fraud, that there are "serious conflicts of interest" among cryptocurrency trading platforms, and that the cryptocurrency market needs "referees on the field."
According to Cointelegraph research, industry observers said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s approval of the spot ETH ETF shows that it recognizes that ETH is a non-security type.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the 196-4 filings of eight spot ETH ETFs on Friday. An SEC spokesperson said the agency would not comment on anything other than the spot ETH ETF approval order.
The listing of ETH spot ETF requires approval of both 196-4 and S-1, and is currently waiting for the approval of the S-1 document. ETF issuer VanEck has submitted the revised S-1 application document for the spot ETH ETF as soon as possible.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the S-1 approval for the ETH spot ETF could be completed "within a few weeks," a process that typically takes up to five months.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that mid-June is definitely possible, and he expects there will be only one round of comments on the S-1 amendment, similar to the feedback the SEC provides to spot BTC ETF applicants, and this process will take about two weeks.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
BTC net inflow/outflow distribution on different exchanges
Large inflow and outflow net positions on exchanges
Different long-term holders’ holding structures
The total chip distribution structure on the chain
(The following figure shows the net inflow/outflow distribution of BTC in different exchanges)
Near the recent price highs, the net outflow from US exchanges has not declined significantly, indicating that long-term investors in the market are still confident in the current price and are not in a hurry to sell.
Increased net inflows into offshore exchanges mean that they are the main source of short-term market stress.
(The following figure shows the exchange's large inflow and outflow net positions)
Recently, as prices have risen, large net positions (above US$10 million) have shown a clear net inflow trend at high levels, indicating that large holders are gradually selling BTC for profit.
Smaller net positions (US$1-10 million) showed a certain net outflow trend, but the magnitude was small.
(The following figure shows the holding structure of different long-term holders)
Recently, as prices have risen, the proportion of BTC holdings between 3 and 5 years has increased, indicating that long-term investors who bought in are increasing their holdings of assets.
The holding ratio of long-term holders (more than 2 years) is relatively stable, indicating that these long-term holders have a high tolerance for current market fluctuations and there has been no large-scale sell-off.
(The following figure shows the total chip distribution structure on the chain)
A large amount of Bitcoin is accumulating in the price range below $60,000, which indicates that in the previous market correction, a large amount of BTC was purchased by holders at a lower price range and held for a long time.
There is some selling pressure above 70,000 or 71,500, and if the price continues to rise in the short term, it may encounter resistance in these areas.
Market Outlook
Pressure and opportunity:
The net inflow from large holders indicates that there is some selling pressure in the short term, which may put short-term pressure on prices.
Especially in the price range above $70,000, there is a certain amount of selling pressure.
The increase in net inflows to offshore exchanges indicates that the market has some resistance to prices around $70,000, while US exchanges show buying at relative lows.
Participants who have been in the market for 3-5 years have become the backbone of support, ensuring the stability of the market.
Those who are more conservative need to pay attention to the movements of large holders and the market's ability to absorb them. If necessary, they can adjust their positions to cope with short-term fluctuations.
And whether to invest some funds above 70,000-71,000 to smooth out volatility risks.
Mid-term exploration
Accumulation trend points
Whale Exchange Net Position
1-6 months realized profit ratio
Positive sentiment on the Internet
ETH exchange trend net position
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend)
The accumulation situation in the field has eased slightly, and the overall situation has escaped from the poor accumulation state and eased slightly.
Perhaps, it will still take time to truly repair the accumulation state, and the market still has a certain degree of caution.
(The following figure shows the net position of the whale exchange)
The outflow of whales from exchanges has slightly weakened, and some whales may be in a mild wait-and-see position.
(The figure below shows the realized profit and loss ratio for the 1-6 months)
The profit and loss ratio is calculated as:
The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric calculates the percentage of net profit or loss across all mobile coins within the respective age range.
Use profit and loss dynamics to understand the selling situation of fighters of different ages.
Green Zone: When the 1-day-6-month participant profit and loss ratio is on the rise, it is displayed in green.
ETH is currently at a relatively high profit-loss ratio stage and is in an upward zone, and may require incremental funds to drive it forward.
Otherwise, excessive profit-taking may make the market unable to take it up, leading to the dilemma of insufficient momentum to move upward.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
Currently, online sentiment remains high, but the growth rate has slowed down slightly.
Maybe the pace on the field will become a little slower.
The slowdown in growth continues and there may be a period of consolidation.
(Figure below shows the trend of ETH exchange net positions)
The net position of ETH on exchanges shows that a certain amount of ETH is charged into the exchange.
This may lead to potential selling pressure or the behavior of whales sorting out their wallets.
It is necessary to pay attention to the volatility risk in the short term, and the market may be affected by potential pressure.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
ETH's ETF news has a greater impact on the market recently, so this week we will observe the risk factor of ETH derivatives. After the market rose last week, the risk factor was close to the red area, and in the short term it was close to the market high. The current risk factor is below the neutral area, and there is little room for sustained short squeeze this week, and it may be more inclined to fluctuate upward.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options volume fell slightly, and the put option ratio was in the middle.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Although the market rose sharply last week, the current market positive sentiment and panic sentiment are at a relatively low level. Market sentiment is still at a relatively neutral level, and the cost of short-term holders has not risen rapidly and is still around 61K. This week, it is expected that the focus will be on observing the positive sentiment indicator (blue line). If it continues to decline, the market will tend to fluctuate.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a small inflow and a small amount of selling pressure.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC exchange net positions are in a state of small inflows.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a state of small inflows.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically unchanged.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Consistent with last week, the current purchasing power in the Americas has recovered slightly, but the purchasing power in Asia and Europe is still losing. But overall, the purchasing power in the Americas is dominant.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT net position remained flat overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 71,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000, 61,000, and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000 and 73000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The mid-term market is better than expected; the 196-4 filings for eight spot ETH ETFs were approved quite suddenly and slightly unexpectedly, followed by the approval of the S-1 filings.
The sudden approval of the document may have an impact; next, market makers will purchase a certain amount of ETH spot to supplement liquidity.
The fastest approval time for the remaining S-1 documents is about two weeks, which means there is only one round of comments and feedback corrections. If it is slow, it may take about 5 months.
Before and after the listing of ETH's ETF, there may be certain capital inflows and institutional allocations.
Next, the crypto narrative in the medium term will be interspersed with the main line of ETH’s ETF approval, and then the main tone of the narrative will be interest rate cuts, which is much better than the expected single main line of only "interest rate cuts" and "halving".
Because statistical charts show that September and October are generally relatively sluggish periods for the U.S. stock market. If we follow the U.S. stock market completely, the market may become relatively sluggish and dull in the mid-term.
From a long-term perspective, once the Fed starts flooding the market with money, it will be difficult for the crypto market to directly enter a long-term bear market. This is another relatively optimistic news and expected change in the long run.
On-chain long-term insights:
US exchanges are buying on pullback lows, while Asian exchanges are the main sellers at the moment;
At present, above 70,000, there will be selling by large participants;
Investors with 3-5 years of experience continue to support the market, and investors with more than 2 years of experience have not changed much, and the market structure is relatively stable;
The chips are distributed densely below 60,000, and there is accumulation, which is a good price range.
Market setting:
Market sentiment is still optimistic and support is firm.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The accumulation trend in the market is weak;
The whales may be in a mild wait-and-see phase;
The market needs incremental funds to break through the existing difficulties;
On-chain sentiment slowed down slightly;
There is a certain amount of ETH stuck inside the exchange, so be cautious.
Market setting:
Slowdown
The pace of the market has slowed down, accumulation is weak, and the growth rate of on-chain enthusiasm has slowed down.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed a small inflow and the selling pressure was general.
Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically unchanged.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 65,000 and a willingness to sell at 71,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment is in a neutral position, and the purchasing power is basically the same as last week. A small amount of selling pressure has begun to appear. The overall expectation is that there will be less room for a sustained large-scale short squeeze this week, and it is more inclined to fluctuate upward. The probability of a large decline in the market is still very low.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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