Important economic data from the United States tonight - the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May was released. The current index value is 67.4, and the expected value is 67.5. The market expects that the value is higher than the previous value. The data will be released tonight at 22:00. Consumer Confidence Index - CCI, the full name in English is Consumer Confidence Index,
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index - MCIS
This data is obtained by the University of Michigan in the United States by sending questionnaires to 500-600 adults every month, conducting random data surveys, and then calculating the index through a formula. It can reflect the most realistic views of the current American people on the current and future economy. At the same time, the data from the University of Michigan is also the data that the Federal Reserve attaches great importance to (relative to the data from the US Bureau of Labor).
The opinions of the adults who accepted the questionnaire need to answer the 5 questions in the questionnaire:
1. The comparison of their own family financial situation compared with one year ago.
2. The expected good or bad of their family financial situation in the next year,
3. The expected good or bad assessment of business conditions in the next 12 months,
4. The expected unemployment rate and economic situation in the United States in the next five years will remain stable or deteriorate.
5. Is it a good time to buy large furniture and commodities?
At the same time, the Consumer Confidence Index is released twice a month, divided into initial and final values. The initial value is released on the second Friday of each month, and the final value is released on the last Friday of each month. If it conflicts with other data, the release time will be advanced or delayed. At the same time, the initial value has a certain degree of expectation, and the final value has data reference.
Back to tonight's data, if the published data is equal to the expected value, higher than the previous value, or higher than the expected and previous value, then the data shows that the current US economy is strong and consumers are willing to consume. However, it will bring certain pressure to control inflation, which is not conducive to optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts. In the short term, it is good for the US dollar, and there is also a positive sentiment for US stocks. The US bond is bearish, and the crypto market is bearish. The positive news for US stocks mainly comes from investors' higher expectations for US stock companies under the strong economy.
If the data released tonight is lower than expected and advanced, it proves that the current US economic growth is slowing down and consumers are willing to consume. It will be beneficial to inflation control and at the same time conducive to optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.In the short term, it is bearish for the US dollar and US stocks, bullish for US bonds, and bullish for the crypto market. The US stock market will be bearish in the short term due to the slowdown in economic growth, but if the market is optimistic about the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US stock market will rebound in the later period.
Personal expectations:
Personally, I expect that the data released tonight may be lower than expected. The best result is the same as the previous value, and the worst is also lower than the previous value.
Reason, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was released on the 10th of this month, which was significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. At the same time, the annualized data of the total number of new home sales in the United States in April released on Thursday showed a recession, indicating that the sales of new homes decreased, which would also lead to a decrease in the sales of furniture and bulk commodities year-on-year, and also showed that consumers' willingness to consume decreased from the side.
At the same time, there have been recent news that the American people have begun to prepare to cut spending to fight future economic risks, so tonight's consumer confidence index may not be too optimistic.
If the result is lower than the previous value and the expected value, then the US dollar index will fall, and the US stock market will also fall after the data is released, which is good for the crypto market. If the market can then interpret the optimistic expectations that are conducive to this year's interest rate cut through the data, then the US stock market and the crypto market will be good again.
The core factor at present is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been delayed to December 24, but the consumer confidence index currently does not have the ability to interpret more emotions. The focus is still on the release of PCE data next week.
If tonight's data is bearish for the crypto market, it may lead to an acceleration of short-term declines. On the contrary, if it is positive, it will not rise too much.
Contract users should pay attention to short-term volatility risks. The above is a personal analysis and not an investment opinion.
