In the early morning of May 21, there was news that the probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval increased significantly, which directly made ETH take off and broke through US$3,700. The highest increase has exceeded 20%, an increase of nearly US$700, setting a new high since April 9. The market value of ETH has increased by more than US$60 billion.
what happened?
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart wrote on X platform: "On a quick note, Eric Balchunas raised the odds of spot Ethereum ETF approval to 75%. But this is for the May 23 deadline of 19b-4 (VanEck's deadline). We also need S-1 approval. It may take weeks to months before we see S-1 approval and an actual Ethereum ETF go live."
In summary, although it is not 100% certain that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved this week, the increase in the probability of approval gives the market great confidence, especially in the context of the SEC repeatedly emphasizing that ETH is a security, resulting in a slim prospect for approval of the ETH spot ETF.
Yesterday, the Fed official website said that it did not see any reason to raise interest rates, so this is also a positive. US spot ETF funds continue to flow in, buying a total of 3,077 BTC.
In terms of on-chain data, BTC in exchanges continued to be bought and outflowed, and there was not much inflow of stablecoins.
The surge in ETH has affected the entire concept of altcoins, especially the Ethereum ecosystem. LDO increased by 20.1%, OP increased by 15%, ARB increased by 16.7%, UNI increased by 19.5%, and ENS increased by 19.3%. These mainstream concept coins have all benefited from ETH!
Can this rebound continue?
The upcoming decision on the Ethereum spot ETF has significantly increased interest in weekly and monthly ETH options expiration. On derivatives exchange Deribit, Ethereum options open interest was recorded at $867 million on May 24, while it reached an impressive $3.22 billion on May 31. In comparison, CME's monthly ETH options open interest was only $259 million, and OKX's was $229 million.
Deribit’s call-to-put ratio heavily favors call (buy) options, which suggests that traders are more aggressively buying them than put (sell) options.
Bloomberg data shows that the Ethereum spot ETF applied by VanEck will have its final decision on May 23, and the Ethereum spot ETF applied by Ark and 21 Shares will have its final decision on May 24. If the ETH spot ETF is approved, it may further push up the price of ETH, which is the biggest catalyst for ETH and even the entire crypto market. But if it is rejected, ETH may face a callback, but the prospects for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF have changed, and the overall future trend remains optimistic.
Good news for Ethereum is coming, what opportunities should the altcoins pay attention to!
The previous article has been reminding everyone to lay out the Ethereum series. The main reason is that the end of a market trend often ends with the rise of Ethereum. No matter what the reason is, when Ethereum continues to be strong relative to Bitcoin, it is the beginning of the real end of a market trend! Of course, it should be noted here that the beginning is not the end.
According to the current trend, only the Ethereum series has rebounded strongly from oversold! Many varieties are still in a relatively low range. I will continue to deploy some valuable stocks in the future, such as PYTH. However, because it rose too much yesterday and it was just unlocked, I personally think that this variety will still give the opportunity to buy at a low level. Of course, it is not recommended to short now. You can deploy in batches. In the medium and long term, PYTH is definitely one of the varieties worth deploying!
Today, the projects with the highest gains are relatively popular with funds, and they can be the focus of the mid- and long-term layout in the later stage. In fact, this wave of rebound is apparently related to the news of Ethereum ETF. In fact, from a technical point of view, Ethereum also has the need for oversold rebound, or in other words, the Ethereum series, look at STRK, ARB, OP, ETHFI, LDO, ENA, etc., which one has not been falling for a long time, so, rather than saying that the rise is caused by the good news of Ethereum ETF, it is better to say that the dealer deliberately releases the good news to pull the market! In terms of track, you can also focus on the following tracks in the future! Especially those who are optimistic about the long-term value of Ethereum!
After a wave of short squeeze, Bitcoin and Ethereum also need to pull back. Judging from the long-short liquidation map, the shorts were more concentrated before, but now it has reversed and there are more long positions. Perhaps the main force will choose to liquidate a wave of longs before continuing to attack. Therefore, when making a layout, don’t blindly chase the rise and fall, don’t think about getting all the profits, execute the operations according to your own plan, achieve the goal, and it’s okay to pay out the principal!
No one knows whether the market will have another waterfall like the fake news of Bitcoin ETF last time, so make some preparations, whether the market continues to rise or fall, you can move forward and backward freely. If it is really as the news conveys, then the copycat season may really come early! You should know that the news of Bitcoin ETF has made Bitcoin break through the historical high directly. The volume of Ethereum is relatively small, and it should not be difficult to double the historical high, that is, to around 10,000 US dollars! Therefore, don't panic if the market falls back, a large number of bargain hunting funds are coming!
The market is starting to become active. There are not many opportunities like this, and there are not many bottom opportunities like this. Don’t hesitate, don’t delay, and hold on!
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