Bullish overnight: ETH surged 20%, SEC may unexpectedly approve Ethereum spot ETF?
Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant “bullish” trend.
Bitcoin was hovering around US$67,000 last night. It fell back after breaking through the 70,000 mark in the early morning. It briefly fell below US$69,000 and then rebounded strongly. As of writing time, it is now trading at US$71,364, with a 24-hour increase of 7.73%.
Ethereum’s rise is even more surprising: at about 3 a.m. Beijing time, affected by the SEC’s news on the spot Ethereum ETF, Ethereum’s rise almost skyrocketed, from 3150 in just 3 hours. The U.S. dollar soared to more than $3,600 and was now trading at $3,653 as of writing, with a 24-hour increase of 19.03%.
In addition, other mainstream currencies affected by Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced huge increases: MATIC has increased by 9.78% in 24 hours, XRP has increased by 5.53% in 24 hours, SOL has increased by 9.94% in 24 hours, DOGE has increased by 11.20% in 24 hours, basically Return to the market price level at the beginning of April.
As of today, the cryptocurrency market is generally not optimistic about the issue of Ethereum ETF.
There are several reasons: the issue of whether Ethereum itself is a security has not yet been determined. This issue is the core issue in the case between the SEC and several cryptocurrency exchanges. The ownership of this issue will directly determine the fate of the cryptocurrency market and whether Issues requiring disclosure as a security ETF.
In contrast, Bitcoin has never had this kind of controversy and has always been considered a commodity, so it can become a less constrained ETF component asset like gold.
Secondly, Ethereum has greater market volatility and shorter history than Bitcoin. Therefore, the risks of regulatory opacity and market manipulation risks that the SEC has previously mentioned may be greater for Ethereum.
Therefore, most market participants, including big-name institutions such as Bitwise and Coinbase, do not have high expectations for passage. The probability given by Coinbase is that “the probability of approving an Ethereum spot ETF is between 30% and 40%.”
Bitwise’s general counsel Katherine Dowling said more directly, “Most people expected that the SEC would not approve.”
However, these views reversed today.
The reason is that ETFStore President Nate Geraci tweeted on X, raising a potential possibility: due to the deadline of the process, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must decide whether to approve the spot Ethereum ETF this week.
However, the complete listing process requires the submission of two forms: an exchange rule change (19 b-4 s) and the approval of the registration statement (S-1 s), both of which are necessary for the launch of the ETF.
Geraci pointed out that if the SEC wants to drag it out, in theory the SEC may approve the 19 b-4 s and then slowly process the S-1 s, especially given that the SEC has remained silent on related matters at present, which is very different from the previous activity in the Bitcoin ETF.
Subsequently, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas reposted and proposed that the probability of approval of the spot Ethereum ETF has been raised from 25% to 75%. He said: I heard some rumors this afternoon that the SEC There may be a 180-degree turn on this issue (for some political reasons), so everyone is preparing now. He also reiterated that the probability will be capped at 75% until more evidence is seen, such as applying for renewal.
#ETH #BTC
