Today is 519, will the market fall sharply?
First answer: No
The market has completed the necessary adjustments and should be ready for a new upward trend.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin has already experienced a wave of corrections, and the probability of a further sharp drop is not high. On the contrary, this time the price is at a low point, which is a good time to rise.
Unlike the last time on May 19, when the price was at a high point and the market needed a deep clean-up, this time the market has completed the necessary adjustments and is ready to welcome a new upward trend.
In addition, from a macro perspective, the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF means that big capital is entering the market, which will bring more liquidity to the market. At the same time, the interest rate cut is imminent, which will further drive funds into the Bitcoin market. More importantly, the cost of Bitcoin has risen sharply by more than $40,000 after the halving, which means that the room for decline is very limited.
Although the market is always full of uncertainty, overall, the Bitcoin market is expected to smoothly pass through this critical moment.
Will the ETH/BTC exchange rate continue to fall?
This indicator is a relatively commonly used indicator. Simply put, if you find that ETH starts to outperform BTC in exchange rate value, this may be a strong agreement, indicating that the market's interest in altcoins is rising rapidly and funds may be starting to flow into altcoins.
However, as BTC has rebounded significantly in the past few days, ETH/BTC has already fallen below 0.046. As for whether it can fall further, I can only say that it is possible, and if it continues to fall (BTC continues to be relatively strong), it is not ruled out that it may fall to around 0.04. As shown in the figure below.
But based on the current overall situation, I think the probability of this indicator falling directly below 0.04 (i.e. breaking below) in the short term is still relatively small. Judging from the K-line pattern, 0.04 is a relatively strong support position. If ETH/BTC really falls to this position, then theoretically, the market may experience some new pullbacks.
Of course, this reversal process may take some time. I can't say exactly how long it will take. It may be a few weeks or a few months. But in any case, we still maintain our previous view: before the end of this year (focusing on September to November), the market may have exciting opportunities for relatively high growth, and then the market may begin to enter a deeper correction. As for whether this round of bull market will also have "double peaks" like the previous bull market, I don't know, but if there is, it may be in 25 years.
Therefore, in the next less than a year, we should witness some new history again. What we are doing now is to remain patient and continue to hold on to the big pie of Ethereum and Shanzhai.
Some factors that are currently bullish for the market:
1. The current upward trend of the K-line is good, and if it falls back but does not break, the technical outlook is bullish.
2. The European Cup on June 15th and the Olympic Games in July, the sports events sector is hyped, related currencies: CHZ, AGK, LAZIO, SANTOS.
3. Ethereum Prague upgrade is coming! STRK, OP, and ARB are the three heroes of ETH L2 layer. This time, there may be a wave of positive impact. ETHFI, SSV, and PENDLE are also popular currencies.
4. With the release of GPT5 approaching, OCEAN, FET, and AGIX AI Super League have confirmed the merger of ASI tokens. The AI track may bring a wave of market enthusiasm (ASI tokens are expected to be launched on May 24)
5. Grayscale repurchased BTC. Although the amount was not large, it strengthened the bulls.
6. On May 18, Tether Treasury $USDT minted USD 1 billion worth of USDT on the Tron blockchain, replicating the results of the issuance in the past year. There is a certain probability of a pull-up trend.
One more thing to add: During the ETH pullback from 4000, many whales borrowed and longed ETH on the chain. So will the dealer use this wave of bad news to liquidate these whales? This probability is possible. After all, whale meat is very plump. So if ETH has a big pullback, don’t be too bearish or expect it to return to zero. Instead, it is an opportunity to get rich. Vitalik is still young and passionate about academic research. There is still a lot of room for ETH speculation in the future!
Cherish every opportunity of decline and seize every opportunity to get rich!
After each Bitcoin halving, the cryptocurrency market will experience a decline and correction cycle of several months.
This cycle is generally used to confirm the price of Bitcoin and is also the process by which market makers build positions. Every time Bitcoin is halved, it will usher in a big bull market. Will there be any surprises in this round?
I thought, no.
On the contrary, the bull market has just begun. I have told you in previous articles that 60,000 is not far from the bottom of this round of correction, even if it is not the bottom. You can also look at the previous US elections. The first week of November is the election day. According to historical data, most of the elections have risen, and there have been only two declines, and these two declines almost coincided with the financial crisis.
Therefore, from the perspectives of Bitcoin and the election, the bear market view of some "leeks" is not supported. Don't be confused by the sluggish market in the past two months and think that the bull market is gone and the bear market is here.
We must base our actions on objective facts.
In addition, with the approval of spot ETFs and the entry of Wall Street capital, how can a bear market come? We must hold on to our long-term chips, regardless of profit or loss. Our investment basket contains valuable mainstream coins, so we don’t have to worry about our assets going to zero in extreme market conditions or being delisted by exchanges.
As long as we enter a real bull market, we will not be able to lose money. I will remind everyone to take profits at key points and times and pocket the profits from the bull market.
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