The most discussed independent event in the market recently is the interest rate cut, but I see that many brothers do not quite understand the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut, and the reaction of the entire risk market after the interest rate cut and a normal link including the closed loop.

Let's talk about the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut first. It is not necessarily that there will be an interest rate cut only in a recession. One is that the national economy is doing well when the interest rate is high, which can make the inflation rate return to a low level, and then the interest rate will start to cut, the liquidity of funds will start to rise, and more new funds will be introduced into the market. The other is the unemployment rate problem I mentioned earlier, which is also a triggering condition.

After the interest rate cut, it does not mean that the market will definitely start to improve immediately. In my opinion, the first one or two months before the interest rate cut are really good days. After all, this is a good independent event that is enough to stimulate and attract external funds for the market.

On the contrary, the market reaction after the first interest rate cut may be disappointing. In fact, for those who think that as long as the interest rate cut is announced, I will rush in immediately, it is probably not a perfect choice. It is true that interest rate cuts are equal to loosening the money supply, but at the same time it is also a big mistake. Loosening the money supply does not appear immediately. There is a time lag. We have overlooked a problem that we may face a short-term recession after the interest rate cut.

The second recession in history may occur in the inversion of this wave of interest rates. I said that there may be another high point after this year's interest rate cut and the election, which is the high point that we must leave. Remember the problem mentioned above. One to two months before the interest rate cut, the market will be stimulated by this independent market and there will be a wave of madness. After all, if there is a recession before the stimulus of news or the consideration of institutions to realize before the market recession, it is worth the market to go crazy.

Some brothers may feel very contradictory when they see this. In fact, there is no contradiction at all in essence. They are talking about the speculation of the trend before and after the interest rate cut. So if there is a long bear market after the interest rate cut, it is not the case. Just like the previous speculation whether there will be a recession, if it comes, then the trigger conditions for the subsequent release of water will appear.

It does not mean that there will be no bull market without interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts and water releases will definitely lead to a big bull market. In fact, I think this wave of market is likely to be such a trend, and it will usher in a high point again, but it is definitely not the end of the past few years. As for the price, don't let me predict it. I don't know. In my eyes, those who predict the price are all charlatans. Take one step at a time. When it reaches a peak later, I will try my best to make a reminder within my cognition.

By the way, the time point for loosening money supply may appear about half a year after the interest rate cut. Of course, this is just my guess. No one dares to say that they are completely sure about this market. Everything is within their expectations. Oh, I am so tired. I haven't read it smoothly after writing it. Please forgive me if there are any contradictions in the text.

It's a habit I developed when I was in school. I remember that the thing that parents and teachers emphasized the most was that you must check the time after finishing the test paper. But I have never had this habit since I was a child. The final result is that I only remembered that I could have done the question correctly after handing in the paper, but I got it wrong in the end.

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