Yesterday, the CPI data was released at 3.4. According to yesterday's analysis, as long as it is lower than or equal to 3.4, it will most likely take off. Sure enough, Bitcoin has risen from 62,500 to the current 66,500, up more than 4,000 points! Ethereum has also risen by more than 180 points from its lowest point of 2,860 to around 2,040. As of 8 a.m., the daily line closed with a long positive, and the trend is still relatively strong!
In addition to the positive news of CPI data, the second is that the pension fund in the United States disclosed that it holds the Bitcoin ETF, which may also become one of the positive factors for this round of market rebound! I personally think that the most important factor at present is that it has fallen for too long and it is time to rebound!
Yesterday's strong rise in Bitcoin once again caused the exchange rate of Ethereum to collapse. From the perspective of technical indicators, the current exchange rate is in a severely oversold range. Overall, due to the continued weakness of Ethereum, the performance of the current cottage industry can only be regarded as a follow-up, and very few varieties have their own trends! From the trend line, the support of the rising trend line since the beginning of 2020 is below, and there should be a strong support effect. Therefore, even if the exchange rate still falls, there should not be much room!
The first shot of the market rebound has been fired, so the next step is to layout on dips, and focus on the AI sector and the Ethereum series L2 sector when it falls back. The SOL sector is still the focus of the layout!
The release of CPI data yesterday once again put the expectation of interest rate cuts on the agenda. Coupled with the US election at the end of the year, a rate cut is actually logical. Therefore, the probability of early speculation is still relatively high. I personally expect that the room for Bitcoin to rise is really limited, at least in the short term, so the corresponding Ethereum may lead a wave of copycat performances!
At present, more and more institutions or companies have disclosed their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs. You must know that the environment will have an impact. More and more financial giants around the world will join this ranks one after another! It just takes a certain amount of time, which also lays the foundation for a big bull market! There are buyers and sellers, and the chips are fully exchanged to pull to a higher position!
The logic of the currency that currently needs to be cleared is to see if your holdings have these characteristics:
1. I did not price VC coins correctly two months ago. The cost of the chips they acquired was too low compared to the current price in the secondary market.
2. The volume of future unlocking is too outrageous + unlocking is multi-dimensional linear unlocking rather than step-by-step unlocking.
3. The number of new coins in the VC pipeline in the current cycle is a bit too outrageous. I can’t buy all the altcoins in a basket, and the winning rate is too low.
If it is a new VC coin, there are some that can be bought and some that cannot be bought. My principles are as follows:
“Buy new coins that have not been unlocked in the next year or so, or buy new coins that have just been unlocked and are unlocked in stages, with each stage unlocked about half a year apart, such as PYTH
So based on this, you can adjust or check whether there is any narrative for the Shanzhai in your hand in the future. If there is no narrative, or even unlocking in the future, then you can consider selling. If there is a narrative and unlocking in the future, then you can consider holding it for a while until the narrative is implemented, and then sell it before it is unlocked!
Here are some altcoins that can be liquidated:
IMX, the main reason is that the popularity of games in this cycle is too low, and I think the large-scale games it focuses on are not suitable for the cryptocurrency circle. In terms of speculative attributes alone, there are better targets than it.
ENA is a rare high-quality VC coin. The quality of this project is that it has positive returns, and with the bull market sentiment, the returns will be even more outrageous, and its unlocking is also okay, but for me, I think there are better options, and I may buy it back later.
Let’s talk about the logic of buying altcoins:
1. Give priority to fully circulated altcoins, such as meme coins and inscriptions, which are all fully circulated. The advantage is that the market chip cost of such altcoins that have experienced consolidation is more transparent
2. Only consider altcoins listed on Binance, because liquidity always comes first
3. Give priority to the leading currencies in the hottest sectors of the market. For example, I recorded a basket of altcoins for 2 months, and it is obvious that Solana performs better.
4. The best market capitalization ranking is between 100-200
5. Positive project returns
6. The market value ranking is much lower than the daily trading volume ranking of the corresponding target. For example, the market value ranking is 100, while the trading volume ranking is 50. Please refer to the following figure
In summary, everyone who holds altcoins must have their own set of logic that they believe in, so that they can withstand the decline and hold on to them when they rise to obtain excess returns! Everyone is responsible for their own funds!
Back to the market:
ETFs have returned to net inflows. In recent days, ETFs have returned to net inflows, and yesterday’s inflows increased significantly, which is also a positive bullish signal!
Based on the above, we should be optimistic about the future market, as the most difficult time has passed. In the short term, we will see whether it can hold around 6.55w. It is best to fluctuate slightly here to accumulate strength and lay a good foundation for the next wave of rise.
The only drawback is that ETH's trend is still as weak as a chicken. Judging from the trend, the ETF approval in late May is unlikely, and we can only wait for new hot spots belonging to ETH to drive the market.
After a month-long adjustment, Bitcoin rebounded strongly last night along with favorable macro data. Judging from the current market, it has been supported near 60,500 and has been repeatedly verified. The market will continue to rise in a state of adjustment.
The strength of the rebound at the cottage level last night was also very good. This is what I said a few days ago that May is very important. It is a very good opportunity for many students who have not yet gotten on the train. If you bought it a few days ago, you would have made a profit today~
As for the performance of altcoins, see (total market value of all currencies outside the top 10). Since April 13, the bottom has been rising. The overall market value of altcoins is actually stronger than BTC. This may be contrary to some of your intuitive feelings. The main reason is that the number of altcoins issued this year has increased sharply, which has dispersed the funds of altcoins, resulting in serious differentiation of altcoin trends, especially a large amount of funds concentrated in the MEME sector. However, the current K-line trend is in a state of triangular consolidation, and is close to the upper edge of the triangle. If it breaks through in the future, the overall market of altcoins may come.
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