Review of the one-year inflation rate forecast for May released by the US last night
Last night, the US released the one-year inflation rate forecast for May, which was 3.5%, higher than the expected 3.2% and the previous value of 3.2%. This unexpected data has attracted widespread attention from the market, and the market is generally worried that it may affect the inflation CPI data to be released soon. After the data was released, both the Nasdaq Index (Nasdaq) and Bitcoin (usually referring to Bitcoin) plunged.
Prediction of CPI data release next Wednesday
Next Wednesday, the United States will release new CPI data. The expected value is 3.4%, while the previous value is 3.5%. At the same time, the expected value of core CPI is 3.6%, and the previous value is 3.8%. In response to these expectations, considering the current economic environment and other economic data, the market has different views on whether inflation will rebound. However, from the data released recently, inflationary pressure still exists, but the specific trend still needs to observe the CPI data to be released soon.
Number of initial jobless claims in the United States on Thursday night
On Thursday night, the United States announced that the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 231,000, far exceeding the expected 215,000. This data shows that the job market has begun to weaken, further consolidating the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year. The market generally believes that these two interest rate cuts are likely to occur in September. At the same time, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have also shown signs of interest rate cuts. As long as the economic data cooperates, it is foreseeable that central banks will cut interest rates.
About market analysis
In the past two months, Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction, and many investors have lost confidence. However, if investors can ignore the volatility of the short-term market and turn their attention to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, they may see the progress of the market cycle more clearly. The rise of the market is highly dependent on the interest rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve. At present, the market is in a chaotic period, and no clear signal has appeared. However, as long as we survive this period of instability and wait for the Federal Reserve to send a signal of interest rate cuts, and enter the monetary easing phase, liquidity will return and the bull market is expected to continue. Therefore, investors should remain patient and optimistic, and trade time for space. After all, the future monetary policy trend is to cut interest rates rather than raise them, and this cycle is irreversible.
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