Market Analysis 5.11
Good morning, brothers. Today we will analyze
how the market will develop next and what are the solutions?
At 9:00 last night, everyone was asked to lighten their positions appropriately. At 10:00, the market started to fall sharply.
Because there were 4 major events last night, 3 of which were negative:
(1) Fed’s Logan said that there was a significant upside risk to inflation. It was too early to consider a rate cut, which was negative for the cryptocurrency market.
(2) The US one-year inflation rate in May was expected to be 3.2%, but the announced value was 3.5%, which was higher than expected. This was negative for the cryptocurrency market.
(3) The US Consumer Confidence Index in May was expected to be 76, but the announced value was 67.4, which was positive for the cryptocurrency market.
(4) The Israeli Security Cabinet voted to approve the expansion of operations in Rafah, which was negative for the cryptocurrency market.
There are 4 scenarios in the future, all of which will be determined by the peace talks between Israel and Hamas and the CPI data next Wednesday.
(1) Successful peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 10%
BTC soared back to $70,000, the bull market returned quickly, and everyone was happy.
(2) Failed peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 35%
A big drop in the case of failed peace talks, a rebound in the case of CPI lower than expected
The positive and negative factors offset each other, BTC fluctuates around $60,000, but the copycats are bleeding and hurt
(3) Successful negotiation + CPI higher than expected: probability 35%
In this case, successful negotiation is not a good thing, it can only be said that it will not fall
CPI higher than expected will definitely fall sharply, BTC falls to $55,000
(4) Failed negotiation + CPI higher than expected: probability 20%
Both are bad news, it will fall
BTC falls below $55,000, defense $50,000
After looking at these 4 situations, we can conclude: it is more bad than good.
Therefore, lower expectations and recommend a position of about 30% to play, mainly holding AR and BNB.
Other configurable currencies: CHR, WLD, CHZ, FTM, small positions.
Brothers with more than 30% positions can only stop losses and give up.
In this way, you can buy the bottom if it falls. Even if it falls by 1%, you can buy more coins when you buy them back.
The principle is the same whether it is a contract or spot.
OpenAI will hold a press conference next Monday. If WLD rises sharply, remember to sell it first. If the good news is all gone, it will be bad news. Buy it back if it falls later.
