The correction that occurred today in the crypto market is associated with the release of data from the University of Michigan in the USA. They predict higher inflation in the United States than expected - 3.5% instead of 3.2%.
In our memory, for the first time, the publication of university data is used as a reason for such an impulse correction in BTC by 4%. But it is quite possible to believe that the impulse was “timed” to coincide with these data. Ridiculous? Yes. And to dump the market in August 2023 much more strongly with two fake news about SpaceX and Evergrande - isn’t it ridiculous? This is what the crypto market is like. Young, low liquidity, manipulative.
BUT the price today came to where it should have come according to yesterday's review. The movement that occurred can be called manipulative, but cannot be called illogical.
And since we are talking about data from the University of Michigan, it is worth looking not only at inflation. Their current inflation forecast is a preliminary (!) calculation of the percentage change in prices for services and goods expected over the next 12 months. The final numbers will be on May 24th.
What really matters is the Consumer Expectations Index and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator that predicts spending. Higher readings for rising inflation and the US Dollar Index DXY. Lower ones mean their downfall.
The University of Michigan data comes from their representative survey of about 500 consumers. If sociologists at the University of Michigan are not eating their bread in vain and the survey reflects the real mood in society, Americans are thinking about saving. The indices are 10 points lower than previous indicators. With a forecast of a decline of 1 point. And this is precisely the braking factor for inflation.
