Market summary:
The current price of Bitcoin has reached a point where the long and short positions are tired of each other. Both the long and short positions are in an awkward situation. The breakthrough just now was originally thought to be a 4-hour technical breakthrough, but it ended up being a perfect 4-hour range oscillation without a breakthrough. It will be in the early morning or tomorrow morning.
At this stage, it is very dangerous for contract traders. It is recommended that no matter whether your view is long or short, it is best to place an expected order. Of course, it is best to control your hands and move less. It is not a loss to wait and see. As long as the investment life is there, the market will not lack opportunities. On the contrary, if you are not careful, the principal will be gone, and you can only watch the best market.
For spot traders, there is no need to panic for the time being. You need to wait for the market to give a stable signal. The cottage will gradually rotate actively, and even if the market trend is a volatile decline, the key cottage sectors will also be active. In fact, the market is not worried about the rising or falling trend of the market, but about the short-term plunge. Therefore, once the market tends to be stable and volatile, the market sentiment will not be too panic. At the same time, it can be seen from today's data that the cottage trading volume has increased and has gradually become active.
However, what we still need to worry about is that US funds flowed out when Bitcoin rose in the afternoon. We need to continue to observe whether this will have a more far-reaching impact on the market in the short term.
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Since 2004, everyone has been in a state of confusion about the Fed and Powell. In fact, this is normal. The Fed's actions and when to cut interest rates are being watched by central banks of various countries for regulation. Even the central banks of Japan (which may have known in advance) and Switzerland have made "wrong" regulatory actions, not to mention institutions and private retail investors. However, Powell is sometimes hawkish and sometimes dovish. In fact, it is not difficult to understand. Let's look at the situation of the US dollar and US bonds.
Some time ago, Powell's hawkishness basically brought the US dollar from 102 to a high of 105.5, and the strength of the US dollar was consolidated.
During this period, it began to be a little dovish, the US dollar index fell slightly, and US bonds began to rise.
The US dollar and US bonds are the US's killer weapons against the global economy and financial markets, and they are also the sharpest two sickles of the United States.
And with the recent dovish attitude, it also boosted the US stock market to prevent the US stock market from breaking down due to insufficient market confidence before the interest rate cut.
If you look at the actions by purpose, it seems that all this is not difficult to understand.
The market is beginning to be optimistic about the expectation of interest rate cuts, but don't get too excited, otherwise the "draft" of the speech by the Fed officials this week may become a draft of cooling down.
Everyone is concerned about when the interest rate will be cut, but it seems that many people have overlooked a fatal problem. Once the interest rate is cut or the Fed is preparing to cut the interest rate, will the economic and financial risks of the United States itself explode? Will the landing of the US economy be successful? If it is unsuccessful, or if it is successful, what positive/negative impact will it have on the global economy. This is also a material I am going to write recently, so I will share it for discussion.
#BTC走势分析
