Hello everyone, colleagues, friends and subscribers of our CryptoPrime community
So far, the cue ball is moving according to our expectations and the local movement to 65K, which I expected in the last review of last week, has already, in my opinion, worked out. Today we saw a clear blow to the slope of the triangle from which we exited earlier and now this is the second retest. Also, looking at the precise blow to the lower limit of the range of $65,500-69,000 (I noted this zone long ago in previous reviews) and the rather powerful reaction of sellers from this zone (more noticeable on smaller timeframes), I would wait for another pullback downwards to at least $62,500 to work out the 200DMA for 1H.
Again, remember about the monthly Absorption. In the last review, I talked about working out the bearish candle by at least 50%, and we have already noted this working out. In general, to work out the global Absorption pattern, it is important that the highs are not rewritten and there is no reverse absorption, and then after the correction there is a high probability of continued decline. The only question is how strong will this bullish correction be?
Looking at the Hammer for 1W, the growth may continue to the area of $69K and at 6H it will look like an LP of the descending channel and a return back. At the moment, the key support is again the $59,400-61,000 zone, and it is important for buyers not to go below the last level on May 1 at $56,500. And then a new local upward trend will begin to form, with a breakdown of downward resistance.
But, given the news background: class action lawsuits against the Coinbase exchange, lawsuits from the SEC against large financial companies like Robinhood, hacker hacks of large exchanges and companies, the lack of inflows into the Bitcoin ETF since April 24, I do not yet see any reasons for continued global growth and especially the historical transition. Therefore, as long as the downward trend persists, even if local for older timeframes and the overall picture, I expect the decline to continue.
On the CME derivatives exchange, the last gap has almost been closed (50% is there), and if the 6H closes with a bearish engulfing, we will continue to decline, again within the descending channel.
Ether paired with Bitcoin continues to weaken and move towards rising global support, from where I expect the start of the altseason. There is still a power reserve of 10-15%. Just the dominance of the cue ball showed a retest and a rebound from the 54% level, from where it can continue to grow, putting pressure on altcoins and in particular Ethereum. In general, for ether, I expect the level of $2800 in the near future rather than growth. At 1H the global trend is downward, and the local upward trend has already been broken and I think that they will soon begin to collect a cascade of liquidity under the slope.
