Greetings, colleagues!
Let's start with the news and results of yesterday's Fed meeting:
The first positive news yesterday was the report on annual inflation, which decreased by literally 1/10%, but, nevertheless, this had a good impact on the price of Bitka, which after the report returned to the level of $70K
At the evening Fed meeting, we did not hear anything fundamentally new.
- According to Chairman George Powell, the economic outlook is still shrouded in uncertainty and the Open Market Committee continues to monitor inflation risks.
- Inflation is moving towards the target, but is still high.
- We do not have 100% confidence in the final movement of inflation to 2%.
- We want to see more evidence of the success of our monetary policy
In general, as he knows how to present, everything is good, and nothing good at the same time.
But, taking into account the document published on the US Federal Reserve website, four members of the Fed board in their forecasts do not expect cuts in the key interest rate this year, seven members predict one rate cut and eight - two rate cuts. That is, according to forecasts, most of them are for positive changes in the future.
Despite the neutral-positive news from the Fed, the cue ball returned to support, where it began to rise to $70K yesterday
This concerns the news background. Now, if we return to the graphical analysis, then all these movements, almost penny to penny, I described in my expectations in the previous review from 11.06, where I talked about the breakdown of the local upward trend and confirmation of this breakdown, with a continuation of the decline.
The first signal of a break in the local uptrend was a false breakout of the support at $66,700-67,300. This was confirmed by the retest of $69K-70K and has now returned to the recently falsely broken support zone. Now, in order to expand and finally confirm the break of the local uptrend, we need to break through the current support again at $66,700-67,300 and rewrite the previous level from June 11, below $66K.
In general, the decline continues in the global downward trend for 4H, which starts from 03/14/24 (when I say global, it means it refers to a specific TF). I’m not talking about the global trend for 1D or 1W TF, which began since the birth of the cue ball, or about the next bullish cycle from November 22nd. Please do not confuse and write stupid comments about trends. Each timeframe has its own global and local trends, or as Dow Jones called them at one time - Primary, Secondary and Minor trends.
Today we see another approach to supporting $66,700-67,300. As you already know, the more often such approaches to support or resistance levels, the greater the likelihood of its breakdown.
We are watching this area!
Everything is easier over the air. As long as the dominance of the cue ball increases and the cue ball itself continues to fall, Ether will also decline. The nearest support is $3335, after breaking through the current one. The ETH/BTC asset also continues to decline in the downward channel and, according to targets, I expect to see it at support in the area of 0.045btc
