Macroeconomics and news:

Powell's speech last night was not hawkish enough, but it was not optimistic either. According to Powell's speech, we can see that he now wants to send the market an optimistic signal of future interest rate cuts - shrinking the balance sheet, so that the risk market maintains an optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts, and at the same time ensures the stability of the risk financial market, so that the US stock market, driven by technology stocks, continues to maintain a high level. At the same time, Powell continues to delay the pace of interest rate cuts under the pretext of inflationary pressure, maintaining high interest rates, leading to the strength of the US dollar and US bonds.

So tomorrow's employment data, according to this idea, should be lower than the previous value and higher than expected, indicating that the employment market is still healthy and strong, but slightly cooled.

If the data meets my expectations, then we can basically judge what the United States is doing now. This is also a topic I will expand on later.

First of all, it is still the same point of view. Whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing is unknown, but through GDP, inflation, employment, and financial markets, the greatest possibility of a soft landing can be released to the outside world.

That is, GDP is growing positively, the economy is not overheated, and the data has declined, which belongs to a healthy growth state. Inflation can be controlled, whether there is pressure or not, as long as it can be controlled, this is the key point. The employment data is healthy and the data can be weakened, but it still needs to be positive, which is also to respond to the stable sentiment that inflation is controllable, the financial market is stable, and there will be no stampede and rapid decline. If these elements are gathered together, it can directly send a signal to the world that the US economy can land softly. Regardless of whether we are new or not, it will land softly, but with this set of data, many narratives and actions can be made.

So from this point of view, I am not optimistic about this year's interest rate cut. Comprehensively considering the current situation in the United States, the risk of interest rate cuts is greater than the current state of maintaining high interest rates. It is the same as the risk market. If there is no interest rate cut, I can cover up many things with data, but once the interest rate is cut, the economic risks will be magnified and the data cannot be covered up. At the same time, in order to enhance the economic situation in the United States, it is inevitable for the Federal Reserve to keep the dollar and US bonds strong.

As a capital economy country, the United States has basically filled its entire economic lifeline with half of the world's financial derivatives, so there is no doubt that it has a stronger grasp of bubbles. I have said a point before that, in theory, any economy will create bubbles by continuously issuing bonds and currencies, and then using currencies to buy bonds. The resulting inflation will then be directly left to society to digest, and the central bank will conduct certain adjustments. The United States has used this method to create the world's largest bubble, and in the future, the inflationary pressure brought about by this big bubble will be borne by the world together, especially countries with US dollar assets.

I am not only not optimistic about the interest rate cut, but also about the economic situation after the interest rate cut. I may be pessimistic and think that in the future we will face a stage of global hyperinflation after the Fed cuts interest rates, and global central banks will work together to fight inflation, suppress it, and regulate it. The theme I will talk about recently is, in the face of future hyperinflation, how can we resist inflation?

At present, investment in cryptocurrency is an effective option, but it is not the best option, and it is still unclear.

#大盘走势