Bitcoin market analysis:
The current price of Bitcoin has effectively fallen below 60,000. From a technical point of view, the level has touched the falling channel, so we need to pay attention to the effective support below in the short term.
The weekly support we saw yesterday was around 56,000. The multiple declines during the day did not effectively touch the support or test the support strength. The current price still needs to touch the support and then see the situation. Although the recent support strength is poor due to the overall deviation of market sentiment, the support below is basically at a large time level, so the effect of support still needs to be considered at present.
In addition to the current 56,000 weekly support, the monthly EMA7 supports 53,700 and the daily EMA200 supports 49,500. At present, we can pay attention to the situation of these two supports.
In theory, we are looking for support below to formulate plans for future trends, but currently looking for support does not mean that we can directly hit the support position in the short term. Please pay attention to this point.
In fact, considering the current economic environment and the sentiment of the financial market, the support triggers a buy order rebound and then continues to fall. This may be the basic trend in the near future.
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At 2 a.m. Beijing time on May 2, the United States announced its interest rate decision. The highlight was Powell's speech. At present, the global risk market expects Powell's hawkish speech to consolidate and identify the expectation of interest rate cuts at the end of this year. At present, the U.S. stock market has made preparations in advance. Once it is confirmed that it is a hawkish speech, it will once again hit the trading confidence of the risk market, but the negative effect of Du Aqi will be greatly weakened due to advance expectations.
Corporate financial reports can no longer save the stock market for the time being, but it can be seen that after the financial reports are released, technology stocks can still temporarily go out of the independent rising market, but the increase is weak. If the overall environment deteriorates again, individual stocks can only follow the decline.
At present, the seven technology giants, Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta continue to maintain a small increase, but they still cannot drive the rise of U.S. stocks. However, once Powell's speech ends in the early morning, the result is not hawkish but somewhat easing, then the U.S. stock market is expected to rebound strongly at the closing stage.
The recent geopolitical situation is relatively stable, and the international gold, crude oil, and sugar prices are basically stable. Gold has a trend of continuing to strengthen during the day.
The US dollar index strengthened under the influence of expectations before the Fed's speech, stabilizing around 106, and the 10-year US Treasury bond weakened slightly.
The CME Bitcoin futures index is currently quoted at around 58,085, continuing to maintain a 500-point positive premium with the spot. As Bitcoin fell below 60,000, bullish sentiment in the futures market gradually accumulated.
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