The approval of the Hong Kong ETF is indeed very interesting. At the beginning of the ETF application and later when it was approved and ready to go online, I talked about this issue myself, and Teacher Ni also talked about it. Even many people I know have discussed this issue on X.
The approval of the Hong Kong ETF cannot bring much driving effect to the price of Bitcoin. The reasons are as follows:
First, the world's largest ETF market is in the United States, and only in the United States. Europe and Asia are not available. This can be seen from the sales of gold ETFs and Bitcoin futures ETFs in other regions. Only Bitcoin ETFs bring a large inflow of funds in the short term.
Second, the investment ecology in the United States and other regions, especially in Asia, is different. Most of the Asian market is free behavior of retail investors, while in the US market, it is more about family financial planners or professional financial planners raising funds from several companies, and then handing them over to fund managers or allocating them on their own to plan how to invest this asset. Retail investors often choose spot with greater risks because the profit is sufficient, and ETFs are often not the first choice for retail investors.
Third, in terms of compliance, the approval of the Hong Kong ETF will still only have a small number of people who meet the account opening requirements and purchase needs in the short term, so it is difficult to cause a large buying volume in the short term.
Fourth, there is a lack of northbound funds. Many people actually understand the definition of Hong Kong in the Asian financial market. At present, this part of northbound funds is restricted from inflow, so if there is a short-term lack of northbound funds, it will be difficult to obtain short-term trading volume.
Fifth, under the basis of high KYC restrictions, funds and many traders in Hong Kong actually have the ability to purchase US Bitcoin ETFs before the Hong Kong ETF is passed, so the Hong Kong ETF is meaningless for this group of people. And the most important point is that although I personally think that US dollar assets are currently at a higher risk, it seems that among more groups who like foreign "moons", they are still trying to allocate a large amount of US dollar assets, so Hong Kong's ETF may not be the first choice in the short term. On this point, friends with Hong Kong securities companies or fund companies can ask if this is the case.
Finally, it is not that I am not optimistic about Hong Kong's ETF. This is a historic pilot. It is better to try than not to take this step, but what is the final result and how to properly cater to supervision are the key points.Currently, crypto exchanges and many crypto derivatives in Hong Kong still face the issues of regulation and identity KYC. This will take time to settle.
