"Looking ahead to the endless frontier technology; seeing into the future, leading the new era of investment research.This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
Members’ Twitter IDs: Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk Will Not Get Lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
Weekly Review
This week, from April 22 to April 29, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $67,232 and the lowest was close to $62,391, with a fluctuation range of about 7.2%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 920,000 pieces;
64000-68000: about 930,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
The core PCE price index in March was 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected value of 2.70% and the same as the previous value of 2.80%;
The core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month in March, in line with expectations of 0.30% and unchanged from the previous value of 0.30%.
Traders of interest rate futures contracts are pricing in an increased chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the first time in September.
Bank of America data showed that in the week ending Wednesday, bonds had inflows of $400 million, stocks had inflows of $3.6 billion, cryptocurrencies had outflows of $11 million, gold had outflows of $600 million, and cash outflows of $5.8 billion.
Citigroup gave an optimistic forecast, believing that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in July and cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024.
Wells Fargo raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,535, from its current level of 5,100.
Encrypted ecological news
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed its decision on approving the listing of spot BTC ETF options until May 29;
Financial technology giant Stripe announced its return to the cryptocurrency market and accepted cryptocurrency payments. In 2018, the company abandoned support for cryptocurrency payments due to high BTC price volatility;
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said that the fund manager survey report showed that in the first survey since the approval of the US spot BTC ETF, 41% of investors believed that the growth prospect was the most attractive;
Benchmark reported that if MicroStrategy chooses to adopt the new accounting standards, its earnings could increase by more than $3 billion, qualifying it for inclusion in the S&P 500 index, which would increase MicroStrategy's valuation as index funds would be forced to buy the stock.
Miners sold just 1,300 BTC in the past month, the lowest amount since sales began in November.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
The chip structure of long-term players
Global purchasing power status
US Crypto ETF Positions
Short-term holder costs
(The following figure shows the chip structure of long-term participants)
The chip structure of long-term participants is slowly declining, and the decline is currently relatively paused, while three to five-year participants have begun to continue increasing their chips.
If the selling pressure gradually decreases in the future, the repurchase of participants in three to five years may be the reason for the support of the market's main players.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
The relative decline in global purchasing power will lead to market scarcity and fragility, and we need to pay attention to the risks of liquidity and downturn in the coming period.
(Figure below shows US crypto ETF positions)
The state of US ETF is still weak, which may be closely related to macro reasons and market reasons. It is difficult for it to become the main force to provoke market growth at the current stage.
(The figure below shows the cost of short-term holders)
The short-term user cost has reached 60,000 US dollars. For the market, 60,000 US dollars is an important point of attention, and it may also be a support point for the market to pull back.
Mid-term exploration
Incremental structure
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Accumulation trend points
New power supply within 1 month
Illiquidity Supply
(Incremental structure in the figure below)
Short-term participants as a whole are stuck in a stage of stagnant growth.
At the same time, the supply of purchasing power is slightly weak and still requires a certain degree of repair.
The structure of the market is relatively lacking in buying power, and may linger and stagnate in the short squeeze/bullish phase of derivatives, thus forming a volatile structure.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The overall trading sentiment is declining, but the rate of decline is currently slowing down slightly.
However, judging from this situation, the structure of the market is becoming more tense. The weakening trading sentiment may mean that participants are in a wait-and-see state.
Right now, emotions still need time to adjust and repair.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend)
The overall situation is weak accumulation. The slightly better situation is that the 100-1k group still has some slight accumulation, but it is also weak accumulation.
Judging from this situation, the overall buying has fallen into a state of wait-and-see and non-participation, which may prolong the duration of the current situation.
(The figure below shows the new power supply within 1 month)
There has been a decline in new forces recently, and there is a lack of effective new forces in the market to push the overall market upward.
This state of decline may continue for some time. Based on past market experience, it may last for 1-2 months.
If the market lingers in this state, there will be a certain degree of fatigue, and the market will lose its trend direction due to new buying and lack of liquidity.
(Illiquidity supply in the figure below)
This group includes participants who are accumulating, holding still, and have low liquidity, and is currently in a situation where the momentum of increasing holdings has slightly weakened.
The group as a whole is still in a holding state and has not created significant selling pressure on the market, so we need to be vigilant.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The risk factor touched the safe zone again after last week, and has now fallen back to the neutral zone. Although the risk factor has left enough room for short squeeze, the market's purchasing power is low, so the overall expectation this week is to fluctuate, or there may be a small-scale derivative liquidation short squeeze.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Both option volume and put ratio declined moderately.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes returned to low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
There has been a massive drop in implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Basically consistent with the tone of last week, the short-term holding cost line is still at 59K, and both positive sentiment and panic in the market are at low levels.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall situation is in a state of accumulated outflow, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although the outflow rate has slowed down and there is a small amount of inflow, the overall outflow is still in a state of accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The second cake is also currently in an outflow accumulation state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has been significantly lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically the same.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
All current purchasing power is being lost in large quantities.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT net position remained flat overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 62,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70,000 and 72,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 67,000 and 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 61,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 72,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Over the past year, the market has experienced multiple corrections of more than 20%. After each adjustment, there was a surge that exceeded the previous high. It is currently experiencing the fifth adjustment.
From a macro perspective, "we are in an upcoming interest rate cut cycle and halving cycle."
The trend will not disappear for the time being because there is the anchor of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle.
The Fed itself hopes for a drop in inflation and a rate cut more than the market. As long as the data permits, the Fed will shift to a period of monetary easing, and the so-called risky assets, the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies, will only expand.
Currently, inflation has changed from rising to stagnation. The next step is to see the next downward turning point of inflation, which is very important for the shift in macro market expectations.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has always been there but has been postponed, from six expected rate cuts this year at the beginning of the year to a 35 basis point cut this week (one 25 basis point cut, less than two times).
In the short term, the Federal Reserve will reprice interest rate cuts at its interest rate meeting next Thursday.
Inflation rebounded in January and February, and today's data showed that the core PCE was flat in March and did not rise again. The April CPI will be announced early next month, and we will pay attention to whether it can turn to decline.
On-chain long-term insights:
Long-term participants have stopped selling, while three to five participants have started to increase their holdings, which may become one of the future major players in the market;
The global purchasing power is in decline and the market is relatively fragile;
US ETFs have performed poorly and are unlikely to lead the market's rise at present. They are more likely to follow the market.
The current cost for short-term holders is around 60,000. Pay attention to the price around 60,000, which may be the support point and reversal point.
Market setting:
The turn in market expectations may take some time to ease, and this period is somewhat like a buffer period.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The incremental growth in the market has fallen into a situation of stagnant growth;
Trading sentiment needs time to adjust and repair, but the downward speed has slowed down slightly;
The market is in a weak accumulation state;
There is a lack of new participants within 1 month in the market;
The increase in holdings by the illiquid group has weakened slightly, but has not yet formed a major selling pressure on the market.
Market setting:
Adjustment and stagnant growth
The liquidity that supports the upward trend needs time to repair and adjust. According to the current situation, the data has not changed its trend.
You need to be wary of extreme market conditions within 1-2 months.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulated outflow state, and the selling pressure was relatively low.
Global purchasing power has been lost in large quantities, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically the same.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 62,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 70,000 price level.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment in the short term is still neutral. The current market purchasing power is insufficient, and the ability to bear selling pressure and risks is low, so it is necessary to guard against risks. At the same time, pay attention to the possible short squeeze of a small number of derivatives.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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