It has been a long time since I sorted out my secondary ideas. The market has reached a point where the market is tangled. Since it has slowed down, I have time to think more about how to play later.
Market voice: This wave of decline has made many people think that the market will end in the second half of the year, mostly because of the expectation of interest rate cuts.
Here we need to think clearly that interest rate cuts do not mean that Bitcoin will fall.
First of all, we need to understand the current round of market conditions. What is the attribute of Bitcoin?
I have always believed that it is a safe-haven attribute, because the story of this round of rise is that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, which has generated a lot of market concerns about economic risks (I mentioned this at the beginning of this round of bull market), so gold is a safe-haven and Bitcoin is a safe-haven.
Then we just need to think clearly, will gold fall after the interest rate cut?
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut means concerns about the US dollar and hopes to stimulate the economy. Investors are worried about the US economic situation, sell US dollars and buy gold, and gold rises while the US dollar falls.
So from a macro perspective, interest rate cuts may be a positive.
In the cycle of Bitcoin, bull markets are divided into early, mid-term, and late stages.
In the last bull market, in the early stage from 2019 to 2020, some altcoins performed particularly well during this period, and the market expected halving to be priced in, which had the flavor of a bull market.
However, with the advent of March 12, the market has become very uncertain and skeptical about the big cake, and even doubted the halving bull. This is the mid-term, the mid-term in doubt and wash-out. It is the same stage as us now.
In the late bull market, the last round started to rise from the breakthrough of the adjustment triangle 9800, opening the market to general rise and sprint.
Now, I am very inclined to the mid-term.
1. Refer to the previous historical cycle
2. Ethereum has always exploded later than Bitcoin. This round of adjustment Ethereum is strong and has the flavor of an explosion.
3. The primary market has not exploded, and it is even just cleaning up the projects left by the high valuation of the previous bull market. Institutions are still struggling to find an exit path for old projects, and there is no clear track.
4. Although many altcoins have risen 5 times or even 10 times, if you look at the general market, many altcoins are still at the bottom. It is far from a general rise, and a large number of secondary speculators have stepped on the wrong track.
To clarify the expectations for the future, we need to plan our investment ideas.
1. Continue to look for opportunities in the primary market, and give priority to new projects with low valuations, good narratives, and good exchange or market resources. Big brothers can dealflow if they have any.Don't buy those with large valuations, because they are slow to exit, have few tracks, and most of the market support is a loss of money and resources.
2. I won't elaborate on the secondary here. There are too many things and too many responsibilities, and the changes are fast. The core logic is to invest in Ethereum with large positions, and to look for low-market-value dog dealers with chips to continue to make trouble with small positions.
Finally, I hope everyone will cheer up and cherish the confidence in the bull market that has been established. Don't be negative after a little adjustment. It is very painful to make money in the currency circle in the long run. The retracement is indeed very large, but after so many years, if you question every halving every time, then no matter how many years you stay here, it is not as useful as changing an industry and cultivating it well. You can be promoted to a team leader after delivering express for a few years. But the currency circle will really give great blessings to those who believe in it without thinking.
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