Have you read the PCE data for March released last night? Let's see what Bao said first: inflation is still under pressure, but it is still within our control.
The year-on-year growth slightly exceeded expectations and the month-on-month growth was in line with expectations. It may be a good thing for the overreacting market at the moment. In other words, it is a good thing that it does not continue to rise. The potential energy needs data to be slowly repaired, which leads to a slow repair of sentiment. When CPI stabilizes and then starts to turn downward, some institutions will start to blow the wind of interest rate cut expectations.
In fact, what needs to be paid attention to later is that the repeated inflation has led to an increase in expectations of interest rate hikes. Before April, the market had already expected interest rate cuts. Now the expectation has dropped from five times this year to two times. Some people even say that there will be no interest rate cuts, but these voices are definitely wrong demonstrations.
In fact, a big reason for the repeated inflation is the strengthening of energy. Later, the high base effect of energy will come out, and energy should weaken at that time. Then the US Treasury yield has begun to soar again. If it is 5%, it means that the Treasury market is in turmoil again. Will it trigger the Fed and the Treasury to rescue the market again? The catalysts of the last bull market were Grayscale's gbtc and water release.
Don't think the current market is boring. It's not the first day I entered the circle. 90% of this circle is garbage time and it's a consensus. Do a good job of investment research, see your own ideas clearly, and then go slowly.
