April 26 Crypto Options Research Report

Dvol collapsed, short-term implied volatility is bearish, and it is not time to go long on volatility

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I. Core Views:

1-BTC and ETH implied volatility continue to collapse, and it can be seen from the volatility cone that it is close to the 75th percentile;

2-The short-term downside risk is further increased, and the Put-end implied volatility continues to heat up. Players who use simple insurance strategies can stop profits appropriately; players who use "black swan" strategies remain idle;

3-Mainstream altcoins are silent. If BTC suddenly falls, the altcoin will not be protected. It is recommended that spot players fully cover the call while the altcoin Call-end implied volatility is still good. There is no need to have a big pattern

II. Options bulk transaction data

BTC's bulk changes very quickly. Yesterday, several of the largest positions were short-term insurance strategies (800 and 400 BTC respectively)

buy BTC-3MAY24-59000-P

buy BTC-31MAY24-62000-P

The bulk of ETH is to lay out the short volatility strategy:

sell ETH-26APR24-3150-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3200-C

buy ETH-26APR24-3100-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3150-P

Sol This bulk is worth noting (I reminded in the group yesterday, and the strategy coincides)

3. Other altcoins

Will continue to roll over several altcoins:#Ton#Doge#Kaspa

Other altcoins that are not familiar with the fundamentals will not be touched

4. Macroeconomics

Yesterday, there was no large-scale fluctuation in North Water, and the rhythm of its inflow and outflow basically coincided with the fluctuation of the index.

With the recent increase in foreign capital that is bullish on A-shares, the US dollar has also finished playing the hawkish role again.

My subjective judgment is that the inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market should be greater than the outflow. (As shown in Figure 1) The index has been brewing a new market trend for a long time, and it is likely waiting for the meeting next week.