Bitcoin market analysis:
From a purely technical perspective, the current sentiment is not very good, and the risk of short-term decline still exists and is not small, but this is not a signal of blind bearishness. The technical aspect is only a reference, and the current focus is still to refer to market data changes and market sentiment.
Let's talk about the rising resistance level first. The short-term resistance level moves down during the decline and is currently around 66,000.
The current decline, falling below 65,000, basically falls below the bottom neckline of the daily M top. The break at this position, from a technical point of view, will continue to fall. At present, the overall pressure is given to the support of 61,200. As the Fibonacci gold support level, coupled with the signals given by various indicators at present, this position has the best support effect, but the pressure is also huge. Once it breaks through, the integer level below 60,000, and below, there is not much effective support.
Until around 55,000, there is a lot of room for decline. Of course, the risk of decline is not completed overnight, which requires a process.
The RSI relative strength index has fallen to around 40. Once it falls below 30, it will touch the oversold rebound sentiment.
Combined with the current market situation, as long as the 61,200 position can withstand the pressure and form support, there will be a rebound in market sentiment. During this period, I hope that the US stock market can bring positive driving effects and help the support below to provide rebound strength.
Later we will see what answers the market data brings us.
LIVE
Let's talk about the US stock market first. The Meta earnings report, which was the focus of this week, was good, but due to the cautious attitude towards future expectations, the US technology stocks were mixed. Without the drive of technology stocks, the focus of everyone tonight is the release of the US GDP data and the initial quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditures. The market is trying to find confidence through US economic data. At the same time, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States tonight on April 20 is also an important reference value for the US labor market.
According to the current previous values and expected values, the US economic situation shown tonight should be that the US economy is gradually slowing down, the job market is beginning to cool down, the consumer index is lower than expected, and inflation is still under pressure, but it will not be too pessimistic. In this way, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts can be adjusted, while helping the stock market to stabilize and increase traders' confidence.
Although the US stock market closed up last night, the increase was not large. The mixed performance of technology stocks led to the weak rise of the stock market. At the closing stage, Google, Apple, and Tesla closed with gains because their earnings reports were not released and the latter's earnings report was released well. However, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia, which are also technology stocks, closed with declines. Due to the release of Meta's financial report, the market adjusted its expectations for technology stocks. Currently, technology stocks are all showing a downward trend before the market opens.
Asian stock markets performed well during the day, with Japan, Hong Kong, and A-shares all closing with gains.
The US dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese yen, the US dollar weakened slightly against the RMB, and the Japanese yen weakened slightly against the RMB.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell slightly.
In terms of geopolitics, Biden has signed a bill to support Ukraine and Israel, which is quite unexpected. Let's see how the situation develops in the future. At present, there are still minor frictions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
In terms of international bulk commodities, gold and crude oil prices rebounded significantly after falling earlier this week.
Gold is $2,330, crude oil is $88, and sugar is slightly weaker at $19.56.
CME Bitcoin futures are quoted at 63,500, continuing to maintain a negative premium of 200 points with the spot as yesterday, and futures market sentiment continues to weaken.
Bitcoin has once again fallen below the monthly support line in the short term and is currently continuing to fluctuate downward. The key is to pay attention to the gold support below.
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