Macroeconomics and news:
The Bitcoin halving event has landed. We found that Bitcoin lacked market hype before the reduction in production. After the Bitcoin ETF was passed, the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed. The trend of Bitcoin may depend more on the US stock market and the US economy. Therefore, the narrative and hype direction of the US stock market may affect the trend of Bitcoin.
After the US stock market experienced a setback in technology stocks last Friday, this week will usher in a wave of technology stock earnings reports. This will be the main narrative of the US stock market this week and will also be an important factor affecting the trend of Bitcoin. So this week, pay attention to the earnings release of the seven US technology giants.
This week's main timeline of earnings:
Tesla will release earnings on Tuesday, April 23, when the US stock market is closed.
Meta will release earnings on Wednesday, April 24.
Microsoft and Alphabet (Google's parent company) will release earnings on April 25.
Apple will release its earnings data on May 2.
Amazon, the specific time is currently unknown, and it is estimated to be around the end of April or the beginning of May.
Nvidia's financial report is currently scheduled for May 22.
This week's focus is on Wednesday's Meta financial report. The stock has the largest increase of 36% this year. The release of financial reports is a test for companies to experience the market, and it is also a stage for traders to adjust their valuation expectations of the company. If Meta, as the best-performing technology stock this year, fails to meet expectations, it will directly lead to a decline in traders' expectations for US technology stocks, a decline in valuations, and even a sell-off.
However, at present, with the support of international media, the financial report expectations for technology stocks should not be too bad.
In terms of US macro data, pay attention to the release of the core PCE index on Thursday and Friday this week. The index is also the core data for measuring US inflation. However, from the perspective of the recent US data gameplay, the previous hawkishness has almost scared the US stock market. It is expected that the data release this week will be relatively mild, and then the US stock market will be protected in conjunction with the financial report.
At present, the most likely major negative for the risk market is the geopolitical aspect. However, according to the current situation, unless S3 breaks out or the possibility of S3 breaking out increases, the short-term risk market should be safe. There is no need to panic, but just pay attention to risk avoidance.
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Compared with last Friday, the market value has increased. The obvious difference lies in the change in the proportion of Bitcoin and altcoins. As the market rebounds, the proportion of altcoins has increased significantly, which is the main force of the rise. Secondly, the proportion of Bitcoin has decreased, and the proportion of Ethereum has remained unchanged.
With the increase in market value, transactions have dropped significantly. The shrinking increase represents the gradual recovery of the market's bullish sentiment. Among them, the transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum has been reduced by half. On the contrary, the transaction volume of altcoins has only decreased by about 42%, which is relatively small. This shows that in the huge altcoin market, altcoins have not reached a unified subjective sentiment of rising.
In terms of funds, the retained funds increased by 1.7 billion compared with last Friday. This part of the funds comes from the retention of on-site traders after completing transactions, and there is also an inflow of off-site funds. And the issuance of other stablecoins has also flowed in.
At present, the market price has risen, and the inflow of funds in Asia is only 130 million. When the data was checked yesterday, it was about 300 million. There was an outflow of funds from Asia today.
US funds flowed in 750 million last Friday,
880 million in total, that is, 820 million of the retained funds came from other stablecoins.
The overall incremental inflow of funds is conducive to the future price trend. With the current optimistic trend on the technical side, the market is just waiting for a buy signal or sentiment.
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