April 22 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report
The historical implied volatility of the past year has limited reference significance, and the implied volatility of ETH bearish side continues to rise
I. Core Views
1-The Middle East risk will not expand at least for the time being, and the short-term impact will also retreat quickly. The implied volatility of BTC bearish side has obviously fallen back, and the overall market continues to be bullish
2-The spot side ETH chased 10% over the weekend. The current market is generally bearish on ETH. My view is still consistent with the Spring Festival. It will catch up, but I don’t know when. ETH's advantage in L1 is unmatched in this round
3-The altcoins#Sol#Ton are still in the high volatility range. Under the premise that there is no doubt about the fundamentals of the benchmark, naked +delta exposure continues to be mainly long, and shorting implied volatility is still a good trading strategy
(See the planet for specific trading strategies, and you can also ask questions at any time)
2. Block trading
BTC has a 250 position buy put option transaction at the weekend
buy BTC-26APR24-59000-P
ETH also has a short-term buy put position of 3,000, which is subjectively judged as a closing operation
buy ETH-26APR24-2700-P
sell ETH-22APR24-3275-C
Sol's large position was updated in the planet today
3. Altcoin options
We continue to trade Doge in coincall kas's option strategy
IV. Macro market
Last Friday, the main A-share index fell, dominated by the factors of the outflow of funds from the north due to the strengthening of the US dollar expectations and the risk of war in the Middle East. Internal investors cautiously assisted in the emotional breakthrough of the boundary inertia.
The strengthening of the US dollar expectations corresponds to the weakening of Asian currencies. There are many small essays about harvesting Asia recently, but observing the stability of the RMB, the conclusion that the A-share market will continue to be affected is untenable.
Last week's war was a big event. Israel's counterattack was limited. At the weekend, Iran's foreign minister had made it clear that he would not counterattack again, which means that the Middle East risks will not expand at least for the time being, and the short-term impact will also retreat quickly. The emotional inertia of internal investors is ultimately a confidence issue.
The physical feeling of the weak old economy dominated the emotions, and then ignored the actual improvement of the new economy. This is actually the biggest opportunity for bulls this year.
Although I have been busy over the weekend, I have also read several brokerage sell-side reports. The focus is on the strength of China's manufacturing industry in the first quarter, and some institutions have even begun to convey the evolution of the logic of going overseas.We have talked about it recently. Under the current global inflation, our manufacturing exports have competitive advantages. Coupled with the migration to high-end, the economic resilience derived from this may be gradually discovered. Then it will be passed on to internal confidence and domestic demand confidence.
When it ferments and everyone believes in it, it is time to cash it in. If the European and American equity markets turn from bullish to bearish (the probability is not low at present), it will not be a bad thing for A and H shares, which are at the bottom of the world. Don't worry that we will be dragged down by the transition because of the decline of US stocks. On the contrary, it may boost our value from the perspective of configuration.
