The wind direction has changed, and a correction is inevitable. Even if it hits 70,000 again in the short term, it is just a rebound, not a reversal. Without two or three months of consolidation, it is difficult to have a beautiful upward slope of 30 to 50 degrees.
The recent period should be very torturous for retail investors. Many contract players have been liquidated, and spot players have been trapped. As far as retail investors are concerned, most of them are actually confused.
I don’t know what to do. The contract has exploded and I don’t know whether to continue playing. I am stuck in the spot and I don’t know whether to cut my losses or continue holding on. Judging from the decline in the market in the past two days, I feel that I can basically judge what stage the current trend is in.
1. First, let’s analyze the psychology of retail investors when the market reaches this point:
1. Missing out on the Bitcoin and Ethereum market
For most retail investors, this wave of market conditions is basically a state of missing out, and the unified voice in the market is that the bull market is coming, and many people even say that we are already in the middle and late stages of the bull market. This voice has caused panic among retail investors, but even if they are panicked, they will not buy Bitcoin or Ethereum, because the price is too high. Whether for spot or contract players, the cost-effectiveness is not high, and the risk is very high, so they basically ignore Bitcoin, which is the most resistant to declines.
At present, most of the altcoins have not started, or the increase is very small. Only a few sectors have started to rise, while other sectors have not risen. Therefore, most retail investors have turned their attention to the altcoins, and they all think that since the big bitcoin has risen so much, the altcoins should make up for the increase.
Coupled with the fact that Bitcoin remains high, most analysts in the market judge that the market will continue to rise and go bullish through Bitcoin. This has caused retail investors to enter the altcoins, and the altcoins have collectively plunged, basically burying most of the retail investors, so the market is full of wailing.
2. The fate of retail investors who kept buying at the bottom as the market fell
After the decline on the 13th, a large number of analysts no longer continued to be bearish, but saw the opportunity to buy at the bottom and began to call for orders to buy at the bottom. After the decline in recent days, several people I follow continued to call for orders to buy at the bottom. There may be a rebound if you buy at this position, because there will be a rebound after an oversold.
But if you are a long-term player, you'd better pay attention to the risks, because the market is still bearish. If it continues to fall after the rebound, there will definitely be people who call for bottom-fishing. So where will the market fall? I personally feel that it will only rise after the vast majority of retail investors are buried.
Most people think that the market will not start until it has completely turned into a bear market. Basically, only when retail investors are completely desperate will the dog dealers absorb lower chips. Therefore, for me, I will not rush to buy the bottom at this position. I must wait for the bottom of my system weekly line before considering entering the market. It takes about two or three months to wait.
2. What stage is the bull market in?
1. The bull market is in the middle stage
Personally, I think the previous rhythm of Bitcoin reaching the bull market peak about a year after the halving has not been broken. In this round of market, Bitcoin has risen sharply, but we have all found that the altcoins have not risen much. After Bitcoin fell a little in the past two days, the altcoins plummeted, which further confirmed my guess that the market is in the middle of the bull market, so the market will return to the previous bull market rhythm like the previous bull market rhythm.
The key to everyone's inability to find the rhythm is that Bitcoin has risen too much, confusing most retail investors. There is no rhythm at all, and they keep missing out and panicking, feeling trapped and helpless. They have all kinds of emotions and are very anxious. Although the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply, most people are losing money. Losing money in a bull market will make everyone more anxious, which leads to a rush to buy at the bottom, and then being buried.
I dare not say that the market will experience a 312 crash like the last bull market, but history always repeats itself in a surprising way. The market should start with a light vehicle, and now retail investors can actually feel whether the vehicle is heavy or not. Therefore, the bull market will not start easily and will not let most people make money.
2. The violent bull market will definitely come as expected
Personally, I believe that there will definitely be a violent bull market within a year after the halving, and the madness of copycats will also come, but your bullets will definitely be used up before that stage comes. The only ones who can make money are the old hands who have experienced several rounds of bull markets. They are not old leeks, but people who have their own system of bottom-picking and top-selling. I don’t want to say much about many old leeks. They think they have experienced several rounds of bull markets, but they still lose a lot of money. They are not as easy to lead as the newbies. The main thing is to be obedient and do what you tell them to do.
Finally, the cryptocurrency circle, whether it is spot or contract, is bound to be bloody, and only a very small number of people can make money. Whether you play by yourself or with others, it is extremely difficult to make money. The last chance to bottom out in this bull market will arrive as scheduled in the next few months. I hope everyone can successfully bottom out and escape the top smoothly.
