Yesterday, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech. First, Powell affirmed the strength of the US economy and the labor market. However, these two strengths gave the Fed more confidence and did not rush to cut interest rates, fearing that the economy would be affected. Then he reiterated that he would not retreat from the 2% inflation target, and made it clear that there is no sign of inflation returning to 2% at present, and believed that if inflation continues to rise repeatedly, the Fed would continue to maintain high interest rates. The recent hawkishness of the Fed is also due to data, so the inflation data in the last two months is still very important. If the interest rate cut is postponed, we may not see a new high in the first half of the year.

Yesterday's ETFs moved, and the table was not updated. However, according to the known information, Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of 79.4 million US dollars, ARK had a net outflow of 12.9 million, BlackRock still had an inflow of 25.8 million, and the others did not exceed 1,000, with an overall net outflow of 58 million US dollars. It brought a lot of supply to the market decline yesterday.

The BTC L2 Merlin Chain with the largest amount of pledged assets is about to be launched on OK. Currently, the airdrop query is open. The current sealed TVL of Merlin Chain, or the assets pledged specifically for airdrops, is already 3.2 billion US dollars (mainly big cakes and some inscriptions). This 3.2 billion US dollars will be divided into 20% of the airdrops. It is another big guy in the blood-sucking market. Let's see how much market value this guy can give after it goes online. But this time, its launch feels very abrupt. In the past, there would be a detailed rule before the airdrop of such projects. Everyone calculated how much they could get by comparing the assets pledged in the detailed rules, but this time it was directly issued. This is actually quite strange, and why is it so anxious to go online? There must be some reason driving this, which doesn't feel good.

SOLANA's new MEME, MEW, is basically not afraid of the market, completely independent, and just rising. I don't know if you have felt that OK and B AN are fighting fiercely recently. What you have, I don't have, and what I have, I won't give you. Everyone has some projects that they only support independently. I'm not saying that OK is bad. To be honest, there's nothing particularly eye-catching about the projects that OK has launched independently. Of course, B AN only has one ENA recently. I wonder if MEW and Merlin will be OK's counterattack weapons. Today, B AN has launched a new coin OMNI again. The expected price of 35-40 is reasonable, but the overall market is not good now, so it may be possible to get it at a lower price.

During the past two bull markets, the wealth share of new coins reached between 85% and 95%, indicating that new holders have reached saturation. If the share of new coins' realized market value reaches a peak, it means that almost all the wealth in the market is taken over by new coins. Once saturation is formed, it is a signal of peaking. Since the beginning of 2023, this indicator has risen sharply, from 30% on January 1, 2024 to 52% today. Obviously, the speed of wealth transfer is too fast. If it develops at this pace, the bull market will end in at most half of the time. Therefore, now is a time to stop and make necessary adjustments

Market Interpretation

In my opinion, the second exploration should be over, but the external environment still seriously affects the price of big cakes, so now simply looking at the structure can only assist us in judging. As long as there is no greater negative news, it can actually be considered that 60,000 is the bottom, but if there is really negative news, no one can do anything. Be patient and hold your position,

Two cakes linkage

The conflict seems to be coming again, wait and see, peace&love, don't let me pay for it again, okay?

Today's Panic Greed Index: 67 (Greed)

I am May. If you want to dig deeper into the cryptocurrency circle, but can't find a clue, want to get started quickly, and don't know how to operate, welcome Master Ye to the village. I hope everyone will be responsible for every decision in life. Come on! #比特币减半 #WIF #sui $BTC $SOL