New investors despise old investors, saying that old investors are timid and cowardly and are scared by 312. Now, old investors have their 312, and new investors have their exclusive 412.

Let’s get back to the point. Last night, when Bitcoin fluctuated by less than 10%, many altcoins plummeted by more than 30%. Some altcoins even fell by 40% due to poor liquidity. Some altcoins were almost halved from their record highs.

There are also some altcoins that rose sharply in the early stage, and their prices have fallen by about 70% from their peak, which can be said to be a bloodbath.

What exactly caused the decline?

I summarized a few points for Dajia, which we have actually talked about before.

First, the Bitcoin halving is approaching. Historically, the market conditions before and after the Bitcoin halving have not been ideal.

Second, from a technical point of view, the monthly line has been rising for several consecutive months, more than half a year, and the technical pattern needs to be adjusted.

Third, Binance has a lot of mining projects. Five of them have been launched this month, with an average of one being launched every three days.

It’s only been half a month, and according to a friend from Binance, there are more than 200 projects waiting in line, which is a serious bloodsucking. This is why all the coins have fallen, but bnb stands out.

Fourth, from a metaphysical perspective, judging from historical data, the market conditions in April every year are not very good.

Fifth, when the volatility of Bitcoin is less than 10%, the decline is generally more than 20 points. We can be sure that it is clearing out the leveraged contract plates. I believe you can see this. Basically, as long as you open a contract order, even if it is 2.5 times the contract order, you will be liquidated.

Taking JUP, which I am optimistic about, as an example, we do not need to calculate according to the highest point, but just the central axis position of 1.4. Last night, it fell to a minimum of around 0.8, a drop of 42%. Any contract order higher than 3 times will be liquidated. The dealer reaped a lot of money last night.

This is also why it is not recommended that you touch the contract. You can beat the dealer countless times in the contract, but the dealer only needs to beat you once, and that is the last time.

The leverage in the current altcoin market can be said to have been cleaned out completely. Next, it will take time to clean out some people who are fully invested in spot currencies, because some people have directly borrowed or borrowed money and are still fully invested. The funds of these people cannot be retained in the currency circle for a long time. If such a market situation continues for a few months, these people will inevitably cut their losses and leave the market.

These people will also become fertilizer for the market.

In fact, we can see this from past history. Although the 312 incident was a special event, the core logic of its essential core remains the same.

In the last round of the market, Sol was also a copycat coin. When it created a 10-fold increase (large-scale funds gathered crazily to buy in the early stage), the market also experienced fluctuations, as shown in the figure:

When the price rose from 12 US dollars (the lowest was 3-4 US dollars) to around 60 US dollars, the market experienced a 50% halving (clearing the long capital leverage), and then the market fell into a volatile trend. How long did it fluctuate repeatedly?

After the 519 crash, the market fluctuated repeatedly for more than three months, and it was not until September that it gradually emerged from the upward trend.

During this process, a lot of borrowed funds were forced to leave the market. It was not because they could not see the general trend of the future, but because they were forced to do so.

Holding spot with idle money may seem slow, but the tolerance rate is very high and you can enjoy the dividends of industry development.

The most important thing is that during this process, you will keep a calm mind and avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

This is why the strategy we usually give everyone is to double the principal, and the profit is arbitrary, without mentioning the requirements for position management. However, starting from March, a basic strategy has been set, which is half-position operation.

The benefits of half-position operation are actually visible to the naked eye. First, when encountering a big drop, you can buy at the bottom and get cheaper high-quality chips. Second, when you discover some new currencies, you can have bullets to participate in the game.

At this time, full-position operations are more passive.

The half-position strategy can avoid most of the declines. It is a bit exaggerated to say that you will not lose money in such a market, but if you keep half of the bullets, or even just a little bit of bullets in your hand, you will not panic.

As for the future market, once this kind of downward trend and sharp drop comes out, it will probably take some time for the altcoin to be consolidated. If it cannot reverse in the short term, we can only wait patiently.

During this period, junk projects with poor operation capabilities, poor core logic, and poor capital strength will be eliminated, while those truly valuable projects will be reborn.

Although it is cruel among the players, it must be said that it is only a matter of time before those with borrowed funds and leveraged funds are eliminated.

This is the cryptocurrency world. I once changed a passage in Murong Xuecun's "Ten Years of Love". If you love someone, you let him come to the cryptocurrency world, which is heaven; if you hate someone, you also let him come to the cryptocurrency world, because this is hell.

Details determine success or failure. Heaven and hell are merely the distance of position management and the difference of concepts.