A new agreement has been created, but it has been hyped up too much, to an uncanny degree.

The coin circle is really fun. It is a blessing to play inscriptions and runes. Every once in a while, some coins are airdropped, including runes, pizza, and FB. Although the popularity is like flowing water, they are all picked up for free and the value is not low. It is not bad.

In the past week, Bitcoin bottomed out and began to recover, returning to above 60,000 again today.

ETF spot also began to be bought in large volumes today. Yesterday, Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of US$102 million, ARKB had a net inflow of US$99.3 million, and Bitwise's BITB had a net inflow of US$43.1 million.

Since September, Grayscale has seen continuous outflows every day, but yesterday it also saw a turning point and achieved net inflows.

According to the ETF outflow and inflow habits, outflows were concentrated at the beginning of the month in June, August and September, and inflows began a week later. The Bitcoin market basically rose and fell following the ETF's trading habits.

And the longer the continuous outflow time is, the longer the subsequent inflow will be.

Therefore, the market this week is likely to be forced to short and bullish. The market a week later is difficult to predict and is likely to be more extreme, either breaking 70,000 or returning to 50,000. Small fluctuations are almost impossible.

Since the beginning of the year, the overall inflow of ETFs has been absolutely greater than the outflow. Many people do not understand why Bitcoin remains at 50,000-70,000 without breaking through.

In fact, this range fluctuation is meaningless for ETFs. It is easy to fall and it is also easy to rise. A week ago, someone asked me how long it would take for Bitcoin to rise after it fluctuated and fell.

My answer is: the decline is very slow and annoying, but it only takes three days to rise back.

Those who can see through this problem, do not panic when Bitcoin falls back, and maintain stable emotions are considered qualified leeks, and making money will basically be no problem for them.

For a long time, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a reasonable position, but it has been hard on copycats.

After reviewing the trend of this round of copycat stocks and looking at the trend of Bitcoin in recent months, perhaps we can understand the intention of the big investors, which is to clear the leverage and the bubble of copycat stocks. As retail investors are the most common holders of copycat stocks, it is reasonable for them to be hurt.

In recent months, my operation is to enter at this node at the beginning of each month, and start reducing positions in the middle of the month. The overall copycat positions can maintain no loss or reduce losses. The purpose is to lower the overall average price, similar to the following operation.

In fact, this operation has deviated from the original intention, because it was previously predicted that there would be two or three months of relatively good market conditions before the interest rate cut, and I planned to just sit back and take a gamble.

However, things went against our wishes. There would be a big correction at the beginning of every month, and we could only follow the trend.

In this kind of market, you must be bold and courageous in taking action. As long as Bitcoin continues to fall to a relative support level, you can consider buying a copycat. Then, the increase requirement cannot be too high. You should adjust the price down a bit at the pressure level in the past one or two months and exit the market. Just wait for the next opportunity. The profit margin is still large, which will lower the average price.

Looking at the past six months, the position of copycat stocks has been getting lower and lower, but in the past two months, it has tended to oscillate within the box, rising and falling, which wears on people's mentality.

Reserve enough positions and enter boldly when the market falls, especially at the beginning and end of the month. This is a time of panic and it is definitely the right time to enter the market. If you miss it every time, you will become more and more passive.

In this short-term market, affected by some news at the end of August, the market fell ahead of schedule. In early September, Bitcoin had a slight correction, but the altcoin tended to be stable, and the overall volatility was less than 10%, so the best time to enter the market is before the 5th.

The pending orders started out small and then increased, step by step, and the entry has basically been completed. Currently, there are more orders with a small amount of increase.

Rate cuts are set to begin next week, with forecasts showing a 50% chance of a 25 and 50 basis point cut each.

Before this month, the market predicted that cryptocurrencies would fall regardless of whether interest rates were cut or maintained high. This was the market sentiment, and I also held this view before.

Also, because market sentiment represents the sentiment of retail investors, we cannot fully trust it.

Because the dog dealer’s control habits are often against the trend, when everyone thinks it is a risk, the risk may have already arrived in advance.

So I think that the market will go extreme in a week, 64, the probability is not small. But I tend to expect Bitcoin to break the high of more than 70,000 first, and sell off before that, and still keep the bottom position.

To be conservative, you can start reducing your position when Bitcoin re-attacks the pressure level of 6.3-6.5.

The bigger risk is not the interest rate cut, but the dynamics of global markets such as the U.S. stock market and the Nikkei after the interest rate cut, because they are the real high-level risks.

Although crypto-stocks are not completely linked, they will generally be affected as long as there is a big drop or circuit breaker.

Therefore, after the interest rate cut, how the U.S. stock market performs and whether it can stabilize will affect the crypto market to a certain extent.

Note: Market forecasts involve risks, and the analysis in this article only represents one’s own opinion.

I haven't updated much recently, maybe because I'm a little tired of doing it for too long, especially in the recent market, I will operate more frequently, and there are too many transactions every month, so it's not suitable to update all the time, which will be misleading.

Everyone should try to follow the position of Bitcoin when operating. It is not that complicated. You don’t need anyone to give you faith, nor do you need to look at some messy news. In the short term, buy at 40,000-50,000. There are opportunities below 55,000, and the delivery point is above 65,000. #比特币年底能否突破10万美元？ #BTC☀ #BTC走势预测