On April 11, ETFs continued to receive a net inflow of 91 million US dollars, about 1,294 coins. Most of the inflows came from BlackRock, and other institutions were still a little short of that. Grayscale's outflow momentum has risen again.

Recently, some VCs or venture capitalists said: This halving may have a very limited impact on the Bitcoin market. This round of rise is more dominated by ETFs. Of course, this is correct. The market environment is different every time, but whether there is no impact and whether there will be supply still needs to be verified by the market. There are still 8 days, and we will know it then. But at the same time, history tells us that the price will continue to rise six months after the halving because the supply is decreasing. If Grayscale's outflow tends to be stable, the change in supply and demand can still drive the price up.

Just put some on-chain data

After the big cake reached a historical high, LTH (long-term holders) have begun to turn to distribution and profit-taking, but all this is related to the addition of new ETFs. After all, Grayscale has been distributing chips, and Grayscale's distribution actually resolved the seller's liquidity crisis mentioned some time ago. This situation will not happen again in the short term.

In the figure, the seller risk ratio of LTH begins to rise. The growth of this indicator is consistent with the historical ATH breakthrough, and it has not yet reached the high-risk zone. Although they have begun to turn to distribution, it is clear that the bull market process has not yet been completed.

The options trading platform analyzed that due to the high macro interest rates, limited ETF fund inflows, risk assets such as US stocks are being corrected, and the US regulatory authorities are relatively active. Under the influence of multiple factors, market sentiment is relatively low. The whales mainly sold call options this week, and there were also more buy put transactions during the decline. This is actually normal. The smaller market volatility gives players who do IV (implied volatility) more possibilities to buy investment portfolios, especially short-term selling CALL. I think it is still very cost-effective, at least this month. It can only mean that everyone is not so optimistic about the market this month.

The analysis team of JPMorgan Chase reiterated that the possibility of Ethereum ETF passing in May is still not high. After all, the conclusion that the SEC defines Ethereum as a commodity or a security should not be so simple to make, so it will take time.

Market Interpretation

Yesterday, the big cake was affected by the release of PPI data, and there was a short-term market of drawing doors, but it recovered again today. Now the market has really turned to the market crash at night and the pull during the day. The overall situation is still oscillating. The short-term direction is still not very clear, but it is obvious that the bottom is constantly rising, and this position is oscillating, which has won more opportunities for subsequent increases. We will see the result next week. This week may be the same. The frame of 67,000-73,000 should not be easy to pass.

Ethereum is in the battle to defend the exchange rate of 0.05 again. Let's see who will take up the banner this time.

There are almost no hot spots in the cottage. Give more time and patience. Skyscrapers don't rise from the ground in one day.

Today's panic greed index: 79 (greed)

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