April 12 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report
The market has not had a decent pullback recently, and long players are moderately cautious
I. Core Views:
1-BTC has not had a decent pullback overall, and should be more cautious in the future, with the support level below $59,000
2-BTC and ETH core option positions continue to +delta, which will not change in the medium term. In terms of option strategies, relatively aggressive naked calls and bull spreads in the early stage should be avoided as much as possible (appropriate strategies should be deployed in the weekend planet)
3-If BTC moves out of the sideways or slightly down trend, then the alt season will come before the end of the month, and players with insufficient alt option positions can actively deploy
4-The overall implied volatility continues to decline, and a new round of rising waves is brewing. It is not easy to use naked positions to short volatility.
2. BTC, ETH, Sol bulk transactions
BTC added a large put option position, so as the core view prompts, 200 BTC respectively:
buy BTC-31MAY24-62000-P
buy BTC-31MAY24-64000-P
ETH has no special abnormal large positions
Sol's new large position planet prompt
3. Shanzhai option strategy
See BIT option training camp points for details, or 4ce labs telegram group
4. Macro market situation
① US stocks & US bonds:
Recently, US bond yields have jumped sharply, with the 10-year yield breaking the 4.5% mark and the two-year yield approaching the 5% mark, now at 4.967%. As of now, the probability of no interest rate cut in June has risen from the original 50/50 to 83.5%, and the number of interest rate cuts is expected to be less than two times throughout the year.
Players who trade long-term US bonds can make moderate arrangements. Another option strategy for high-odds US stocks was also published on the planet last week.
If you don’t understand, you can ask questions on the planet.
② A-shares:
Yesterday, the main A-share index opened low and showed a resilient trend. The afternoon decline cannot cover up the current state of A-shares being more immune to negative news than in 2023. Yesterday’s short essay on securities lending was a key factor affecting the intraday trend. The rumor was refuted at noon, and the source of securities was confirmed in the afternoon. Players who participated in short-term theme copying had a good roller coaster ride.
A new round of highly anticipated narratives has not been formed. The key factor is that the economy has bottomed out and rebounded to repair the pricing of everyone’s pessimistic expectations in the past two years. Therefore, whether the key data to be released next week can improve is the key.
