Yesterday, Hong Kong approved its first Bitcoin ETF, announcing that it would be launched as early as the 15th of this month.

However, it seems not so smart to launch an ETF at this time.

This may be a crucial step for Hong Kong, but from a global perspective, it seems a bit like an ugly imitation.

The reason is very simple. The first person who calls a young woman a beauty is a genius, the second person who does so is a talented person, and the third person who does so can only be called a mediocre person.

The first fund that could have a significant impact on Bitcoin through an ETF-like fund was Grayscale.

In the era when ETFs were not approved, Grayscale used fund management to allow GBTC to realize the possibility of free trading of Bitcoin in the U.S. stock market, bringing huge liquidity to the industry. Since then, Grayscale's holdings have always brought volatility to the crypto market, and even the concept of Grayscale was derived later.

In January of this year, after the United States officially passed the Bitcoin ETF, the market quickly exploded.

We can compare the trend of Bitcoin after January 11:

Hong Kong is planning to launch an ETF in the near future, but the timing is actually very awkward.

First, the Bitcoin halving is imminent. In the past, the market outlook after the halving was not optimistic. Although this year may break this rule, the inertia of the market is still difficult to ignore.

Secondly, Bitcoin itself is already at a high price. Whether it is the previous Grayscale or this year's US ETF, the average price has not exceeded $40,000. If the Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF is approved, the cost of investors' positions will only be around $70,000, which makes investors' risks even greater.

Third, Hong Kong itself has suffered from a serious loss of capital and talent. In the past few years, Hong Kong’s rich people and wealth have been lost to a great extent, and Hong Kong has even lost its position as Asia’s financial center.

This is why the Hong Kong government had to suck blood from the mainland and launch the Talent and High Talent Program to attract rich and talented people from the mainland to Hong Kong to fill the gaps left by the flight of talent and capital.

As I wrote a few days ago about the 99% plunge in Hong Kong stocks, we can see that Hong Kong's financial sector is now facing a very embarrassing situation.

After all the calculations, apart from some international capital and Hong Kong local capital that have not gotten on board, it seems that only the leeks in the A-share market can rush in to provide liquidity after the ETF is launched.

The "leeks" in the A-share market, who have been unable to make money from the stablecoin-based stock market for a long time, may choose to enter the cryptocurrency market to gain higher returns. After all, the mechanism of the A-share market is indeed very unfavorable to retail investors.

But for us, the holders of coins, this is a good thing.

Because we have been waiting for them here early.

What impact do you think the listing of ETFs in Hong Kong will have on the market?

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