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Last night, ETH had another negative news about ETF. This time, it was the CEO of VanEck who poured cold water on it, saying that the SEC is likely to reject the Ethereum spot ETF in May. You should know that VanEck is the first institution to apply for the Ethereum spot ETF. This time, it clearly said that it was rejected rather than postponed, which is still a big blow to the market. In terms of the exchange rate trend of ETH to BTC, it has fallen below the two barriers of 0.052 and 0.051 last night. Bitcoin is less than 10 days away from halving, so the short-term trend of this exchange rate is still not optimistic. Of course, the ETH ecosystem is also favorable. Last night, eigenlayer's DA layer eigenDA announced the official launch of the ETH mainnet. The benefit of this to Ethereum is that it can bring back the B-side users that were previously snatched away by $tia to the ETH network, which is also a small benefit for ETH.

Last night, ETH had another negative news about ETF. This time, it was the CEO of VanEck who poured cold water on it, saying that the SEC is likely to reject the Ethereum spot ETF in May. You should know that VanEck is the first institution to apply for the Ethereum spot ETF. This time, it clearly said that it was rejected rather than postponed, which is still a big blow to the market. In terms of the exchange rate trend of ETH to BTC, it has fallen below the two barriers of 0.052 and 0.051 last night. Bitcoin is less than 10 days away from halving, so the short-term trend of this exchange rate is still not optimistic. Of course, the ETH ecosystem is also favorable. Last night, eigenlayer's DA layer eigenDA announced the official launch of the ETH mainnet. The benefit of this to Ethereum is that it can bring back the B-side users that were previously snatched away by $tia to the ETH network, which is also a small benefit for ETH.

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周末两天市场持续阴跌,其实这个走势是可以预料的,毕竟周五晚上ETF再次出现大量的资金外流,这个对周末两天的市场打击还是非常大的。 不过比市场阴跌更让人感到恐慌的是山寨市场已经无法做到和大饼同频了,最典型就是跟跌不跟涨,以及大饼对山寨进行吸血,其实这个现象上周就有了,但由于 #meme 板块的存在让大家多少给忽视了,而本周末 #meme 也出现了大幅回调把市场最后一块遮羞布给掀开了,这时候我们才清醒的意识到不管是令人讨厌的高FDV VC新币,还是各种更换赛道的老币,亦或是减半之前被吹上天的符文以及比特币L2,在市场增量资金不足和宏观不确定因素太多的背景下都没办法走出逆势行情,本轮牛市的主要驱动力就只有比特币现货ETF带来巨量的增量自资金,当ETF的场外买盘停滞后,市场向上的动力自然就消失了,各个山寨板块之前的超额涨幅自然也要回吐,这也是为啥近期山寨跟不上大盘最主要原因,我们之前一直在强调尽管在牛市也要合理的布局自己的仓位,一切比特币仓位低于80%的配比我认为都是不合理甚至冒进的,会看下币市的那些大鲸鱼,其实他们只做对了一件事儿,就是成功的穿越了几轮周期,而穿越周期的秘诀其实就在重仓比特币不动,所以随着未来牛市的回归,我们一定要坚持把手中的山寨仓位调整会比特币或者其它更加主流且稳健的资产上。
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