Bitcoin market analysis:
Bitcoin started a rebound in the early hours of Monday morning, successfully touched the resistance level of the daily line and then fell back. It is currently stabilizing and fluctuating above 70,000. The daily Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking. According to the current trend, as long as it stabilizes above 70,000, the probability of the subsequent daily Bollinger Bands shrinking and breaking upward will be greater.
Currently, affected by the macro-economy, the sentiment of the risk market is relatively depressed.
The short-term resistance levels are 72,300, 72,600, and 73,000, respectively from the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily resistance levels. The successful breakthrough of each resistance level depends on the next one.
To break through the daily line, we must look at the previous historical high, and then the 77,300 resistance level from the weekly line. Of course, once the weekly resistance level is about to be touched, it means that another wave of surge will come. However, the upward movement of the key resistance level also relieves the pressure on the subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices in the short term.
At present, Bitcoin has stabilized near 70,000. Let's pay attention to the support below.
Today's support situation is quite special. The technical support below forms an effective support range due to the compression of the Bollinger Bands. There will be a pin-piercing amplitude in the range.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering near yesterday's first support, and it has effectively fallen below and rebounded again during the day. Because this support area is close to the support range below, the support effect is significantly weakened. We will temporarily ignore this support level.
The first support, 69,000-70,000, is a short-term support with general support. This support is a support range formed by different degrees of technical support brought by 1 hour, 4 hours and daily lines. Because the support positions of various technical indicators are close, we directly regard it as a support range.
The second support, 68,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is effectively supported by the daily 4-hour EMA200, the daily Bollinger Band middle line, the 3-day EMA7 and the weekly EMA7. The support strength is strong and is also the support level of the daily short-term trend. This position will determine whether the price will continue to fall after falling back.
The third support, 66,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is supported by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band. If the second support determines whether the short-term decline in the daily line will continue, then the third support determines the entire decline above 60,000.If the monthly support is broken, the downward pressure will be greater, and the risk of further decline will be greater.
Last week, we can see that Bitcoin did not fall below the key support level in the upper and middle levels, so the price rebounded after stabilizing.
The technical results we get are still optimistic enough. Although the price has fallen back after hitting the high support, the decline has stabilized above 70,000. In the past two weeks, most of Bitcoin was consolidating and changing hands above 65,000. Now the range of fluctuations has moved up, and fluctuations also mean turnover. As long as there is no negative impact below this position, it will be more conducive to the short-term bottoming of Bitcoin prices here. It will also help the price rebound later.
In particular, we noticed that it has become a long-term shock, rebound, and shock, and the technical support below has been continuously moving up, which is conducive to helping the price stabilize sentiment again.
The RSI relative strength index has now fallen back to 60. Compared with yesterday's position of 69, the decline in the index means that in the current short-term decline of Bitcoin, investor sentiment has been buffered. The continued decline of the index will be conducive to triggering buying power in the future market
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In terms of macroeconomics, today's theme is still waiting, waiting for Wednesday's CPI data, and today's US March NFIB Small Business Confidence Index will also be used to make a further assessment of the situation of US companies.
Today's theme may be the escalation of the geopolitical situation.
US stocks closed mixed in the early morning, with the Nasdaq closing up and the S&P closing down.
Technology stocks Nvidia and Apple closed down, while Google and Tesla closed up. Currently, Nvidia and Google both rose before the market opened.
Micro Strategy and Coin's stock prices continued to rise at the close, and currently fell before the market opened. Due to the current volatility of Bitcoin, the sentiment of currency stocks fell before the market opened, but there is still a few hours of adjustment before the opening of the US stock market.
Asian stock markets, Nikkei, A shares, and Hang Seng have also prepared for market expectations in advance because of the stable sentiment of US stocks, and maintained a small increase during the day.
Global stock markets are waiting for the Fed's CPI data on Wednesday.
The US dollar index remains above 104. Although the US dollar index is gradually weakening, it still maintains a strong low position compared with other currencies.
The exchange rate of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Japanese yen rose slightly, and the exchange rate of Japanese yen to RMB continued to remain flat.
The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has all declined, and US Treasury bonds have risen slightly. The current yield is 4.397%, which is still a small safety range from the high interest rate alarm of 4.5%. Once the interest rate reaches 4.5%, it will bring subtle changes to the entire financial market.
The ETF market closed with an increase and fell slightly after the market.
Today's focus is on the escalation of the geopolitical situation. According to reliable information, Lang Ge has deployed 500,000 troops to prepare for direct exit, and Israel is also facing a head-on confrontation. The situation between the two sides is on the verge of breaking out. As for the United States, even the countries centered on the United States are ready to suspend their help and support for Israel. Whether it is really for humanitarian reasons or because they are scared by the slippers brothers, there is still no suitable mediation resolution in the Middle East.
Mao Ge and Xiao Ze are still very active, and this state has basically become the norm. International gold took the lead and currently maintains a price of US$2,362, and there are signs of continued breakthroughs.Whether it is risk aversion in local areas or risk aversion in the global financial environment, the gold market has been greatly stimulated.
International crude oil has not seen a significant increase at present, but it still maintains a strong position of $90. If Langge and Israel continue to develop, crude oil prices may be difficult to cool down.
The CME Bitcoin Futures Index is currently quoted at 70,850, continuing to maintain a positive premium of 350 points with the spot. It seems that before the release of inflation data on Wednesday, the bullish sentiment in the futures market has continued to remain cautious.
Affected by the macro-economy, Bitcoin's current trend has stabilized above the 70,000 support after falling back, which is near the first support yesterday. It can even be said that it has fallen below the first support. The risk market is more calm before the data is released. In the short term, as long as Bitcoin continues to stabilize again, turnover is a good thing.
Later, we will pay attention to the market situation of Bitcoin today.
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