Macroeconomics and news:
There are two important time points this week, CPI inflation on Wednesday and the Fed's monetary minutes on Thursday morning. Originally, the monetary minutes were the theme, but now that the market has recognized that there will be no interest rate hikes or cuts, the Fed's monetary minutes may not seem so important.
As one of the references for inflation data, CPI data was not as important as the PCE index, but after the speeches of Powell and the Fed's hawkish officials last week, the market is eager to learn about the Fed's interest rate cuts through inflation data.
So at present, CPI is the data with the highest focus this week, followed by the speeches of Fed officials in the Fed's monetary minutes after the data is released. The market can reasonably anticipate the Fed's interest rate cuts this year through CPI data and speeches.
Affected by the US employment data last Friday, the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have been reduced from three to two, and the expectations for interest rate cuts in June and July have been postponed to September. In the short term, the risk market will not hope that various data will show that the interest rate cuts in the past few years will be further reduced.
In fact, my personal understanding is that there is no need to consider the data to judge the Fed's interest rate cuts for the time being, but of course market expectations are still a reference. I think that before the Fed actually cuts interest rates in the future, data and speeches are smokescreens. The problems that the United States needs to face are not just data and speeches that can alleviate them.
If last week's employment data represents the strong foundation of the US economy, why is the increase in employment so strange? It is not the increase in employment data for mainstream occupations. Is it because Americans who once tried to play badly have begun to try various jobs to fight the pressure of life?
Why is the recovery of production data accompanied by a decrease in electricity consumption? The production industry has also begun to reduce consumption with new energy?
So for some of the data currently released by the United States, the purpose of disrupting the outside world's understanding of the Fed's real actions is important.
Moreover, I am a little skeptical whether it is really necessary to wait until the risk market and the outside world are immune to the Fed's data, and suddenly announce a rate cut to catch everyone off guard.Of course, this view cannot be verified and can only be regarded as speculation.
In the crypto market, there was no data or news that required special attention on Monday.
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(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the market in the short term, the data will be greatly deviated)
The current total market value is 2.824 trillion, which is 226 billion more than last Friday.
Bitcoin market value is 141.56 billion, 106.7 billion more than last Friday,
Ethereum market value is 438.16 billion, 47.08 billion more than last Friday,
Total market value increased by 226 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 153.78 billion, and the rest is the market value increase of 72.22 billion of altcoins.
Bitcoin accounts for 50.1% of the market, which is 30 basis points lower than last Friday, Ethereum accounts for 15.5%, which is 50 basis points higher than last Friday, and altcoin accounts for 34.4%, which is 20 basis points lower than last Friday.
In terms of trading volume:
Total trading volume is 108.7 billion, which is 15.5 billion less than last Friday.
Bitcoin is 30.78 billion, which is 12.02 billion less than last Friday.
Ethereum is 18.06 billion, which is 340 million less than last Friday.
Total trading volume of Shanzhai is 59.86 billion, which is 3.14 billion less than last Friday.
Funds:
Total funds in the market are 155.5 billion, which is 1.6 billion more than last Friday. The proportion of funds is 5.51%, which is 43 basis points less than last Friday.
USDT: market value is 106.84 billion, which is 400 million more than last Friday. Trading volume is 43.5 billion, which is 58% less.
USDC: market value is 32.6 billion, which is 300 million less than last Friday. Trading volume is 6.6 billion, which is 80% less.
Today's overall market changes are relatively optimistic, but to be precise, they are mixed.
The market is worth increasing. The most eye-catching performance is Ethereum. Ethereum finally performed well after a period of weakness. The market value increase is followed by Bitcoin and then the alt market.
Judging from the trading volume, as the price rebounded, the reduction in trading volume proved that the market's bullish sentiment gradually improved. The shrinking volume is good for the price. Among them, Bitcoin performed the most obvious, followed by the alt market. Ethereum has increased a lot with today's market value, but its trading volume is not low, proving that Ethereum's sentiment has not yet tended to be completely bullish.
Although the data on trading volume and market value are good, the funds are a bit worrying. After a weekend, the retained funds on the market increased by 1.6 billion, the off-site inflow funds inflow into the Asian market flowed in 400 million, and the US market saw capital inflows again, with an inflow of up to 300 million. That is to say, after a weekend, 1.5 billion funds in the market ended trading and remained on the sidelines.
Of course, for funds, today is Monday, and the situation of US funds needs to be observed. Whether it will continue to flow out and whether the data will continue to deteriorate will be the focus of our future observation.
However, overall, the market value and trading volume are still better than last week. The rest depends on whether the market traders are in a good mood.
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