Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech after the PCE data was released. He changed his previous dovish stance and expressed to the market that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates under the current situation. After this, yesterday (1 APR) the U.S. March ISM The industry index recorded 50.3, exceeding expectations and expanding for the first time since 2022. The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June have once again weakened (the futures market priced this probability to 50/50). U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, and the two-year /Ten-year touched 4.70% and 4.35% respectively, and the dovish narrative continues to face challenges.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar; U.S. non-farm employment index, hourly wage and other data will be released this week

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

Source: Coinglass

In terms of digital currency, BTC fell to 66,000 US dollars during the Asian session, breaking the recent sideways market near 70,000. However, the funding rates of major exchanges are still maintained at a high level due to one-sided long positions. Some analysts It was pointed out that this round of price adjustment may be caused by the liquidation and stop loss of long futures positions. Cryptocurrency rally momentum appears to be beginning to wane, with Vol Skew on options trading at all-time lows (25 dRR is around the 25% percentile of the past three months). From a trading point of view, the trading volume of call options in the past day has significantly exceeded that of put options. The P/C Ratio of ETH even reached an extremely low point close to 0.2, forming a flow similar to Sell Call Spread. The selling pressure of BTC in the short term is even greater. For strength, the bullish long distribution has shifted to the far end.

Source: Deribit (as of 2 APR 16:00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution, P/C Ratio reached an extremely low point close to 0.2

Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution, strong selling pressure in the short term

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade