Last Friday's non-farm payroll report was somewhat lackluster, with a high probability of a rate cut in December. The overall non-farm employment data was slightly above expectations, but the weak data from last month (only 12,000) was hardly revised, indicating that there are indeed some signs of weakness in the labor market. However, the slightly higher unemployment rate shows that the job market is gradually cooling down, without significant deterioration. In the current positive risk context, this supports the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in December. Currently, the market anticipates an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December and about a 30% chance of another cut in January.

Key Indicators: (December 2nd, 4 PM -> December 9th, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC against USD is up 3.9% ($95,900 -> $99,600), ETH against USD is up 7.4% ($3,640 -> $3,910)

BTC against USD December (year-end) ATM volatility fell by 0.6 points (55.8 -> 55.2), 25 d skew fell by 0.7 points (4.9 -> 4.2)
Looking at the trends, the spot market is still correcting the price. Although the crypto price hit a new high above $100k, it quickly and heavily fell back afterward. We believe any rise will be sold off, while large market demand will emerge during a drop, thus we expect to see a one-sided corrective trend (price movements gradually flattening). Currently, resistance is mainly at $99k-$104k, and support starts from $94k down to $85k.

Key indicators: (November 25, 4 PM -> December 2, 4 PM Hong Kong time)
BTC against USD down 2.4% ($98,200-> $95,900), ETH against USD up 6.7% ($3,410-> $3,640)
BTC to USD year-end (December) ATM volatility decreased by 4.2 points (60.0->55.8), year-end 25d skew remained unchanged (4.9->4.9)
Spot technical indicators overview:
The price appears to have reached a local peak. Although some well-known companies continue to buy strongly, the upward trend has failed to maintain. This aligns with our view that the market has passed the main upward phase and is stabilizing here before the next volatility.

Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, resulting in light market trading volume and an overall consolidation pattern. The U.S. stock market is poised to make history again, with 2024 set to be one of the best-performing years in history, and five out of the past six years achieving double-digit returns.

Market breadth remains supportive, with the difference between the number of new highs and lows for stocks over 52 weeks looking healthy. The upward trend remains intact, and the volatility index (VIX) is on a downward trend. Meanwhile, after Trump announced Scott Bessent would be appointed Secretary of the Treasury, the U.S. bond market returned to calm, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 35 basis points from its October peak.

Key indicators: (November 18, 4 PM - November 25, 4 PM Hong Kong time)
BTC against USD increased by 7.0% ($91,750-$98,200), ETH against USD increased by 8.6% ($3,140-$3,410)

BTC against USD year-end (December) ATM volatility increased by 3.0 points (57.0->60.0), year-end 25d skewness decreased by -1.0 points (5.9->4.9)
The upward trend in prices continues, but actual volatility is slowing down and momentum is gradually stagnating. These signs suggest that a peak may be emerging in the short term (but whether we have reached the peak or will continue to break through $100k remains to be seen).

With BTC approaching the $100,000 mark and every macro observer seemingly turning into an MSTR convertible bond expert over the past week, cryptocurrencies are once again in the news, attracting the most mainstream attention since the FTX incident.
As we've mentioned in the past, the "easy phase" is over and market volatility is set to intensify significantly going forward as belated investors enter the market with significant leverage.
Microstrategy successfully exercised a $400 million over-allotment option on its original $2.6 billion convertible bonds (0% coupon, 55% premium), increasing the final size to $3 billion. According to Cointelegraph, Allianz Insurance is one of the main participants in this transaction. The closing price of this batch of convertible bonds due in 2029 exceeded $104 on the first trading day.

Bullish positions are at extreme levels, coupled with market worries about rising yields (with the 10-year nominal yield around 4.45% and real yield > 2.15%), leading to a pullback in the U.S. stock market's recent gains (last Friday SPX -1.3%, Nasdaq -2.3%). Furthermore, Chairman Powell indicated in last week's remarks that given the strong economic conditions, the Federal Reserve is considering slowing the pace of interest rate cuts, causing the market to price the likelihood of a rate cut in December down from nearly 2% in September to only 61%.
"Currently, the economic situation has not signaled any urgent need for interest rate cuts," Powell said in a talk in Dallas on Thursday. "The strong performance of the current economy allows us to make decisions more cautiously." — Jerome Powell

Key indicators: (November 4, 4pm -> November 11, 4pm Hong Kong time)
BTC/USD price increased by +18.4% ($68,000->$81,200), ETH/USD price increased by +27.6% ($2,460->$3,140)

BTC/USD ATM volatility at the end of the year (December) fell by -6.2 points (58.0->51.8), December 25 d skewness increased by +0.1 points (3.1->3.2)
After the confirmation of Trump's succession as the next president, the price broke through the resistance level of $74k. Between 4pm (Hong Kong time) on Tuesday, November 5 and 4pm on November 8, the price rose by 11% to our bullish target range for the election ($76k-$78k). Since then, the upward momentum has continued to increase. We continue to be bullish on BTC after the election and set a long-term price target of more than $100k. In the short term, we may see some price fluctuations or recessions, but the core technicals still support bullishness.

Key Indicators: (October 28, 4 PM - November 4, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC/USD price up +0.15% ($68,500->$68,600), ETH/USD price down -2.4% ($2,520->$2,460)
BTC/USD year-end (December) ATM volatility up +3.7 points (54.3->58.0), year-end 25 delta skew down -0.6 points (3.7->3.1)

Overview of Spot Technical Indicators:
On Wednesday, the coin price reached an all-time high, initially leading us to feel that we had underestimated the potential of the spot market before the election. However, the coin price ultimately failed to maintain its high and quickly retreated, with the $70k price becoming the main resistance level. Meanwhile, the peak price will become the target for the next round of competition in the market, provided that Trump wins the election.

Although Trump will take 2 months to officially assume office after being elected, his victory's impact is already widely reflected in geopolitics and capital markets. Cryptocurrency has once again become the focus, with BTC prices surpassing $80,000 while voting is still ongoing in some regions of the U.S. Additionally, Blackrock's BTC ETF (IBIT) set a record for single-day fund inflow at $1.1 billion last Thursday, and even the ETH ETF experienced its third-highest single-day fund inflow in history.

As of this year, IBIT's fund inflow ranks third among all U.S.-listed ETFs, with assets under management exceeding iShares' own gold ETF, surpassing $33 billion. During this surge, centralized exchanges (CEX) cleared over $800 million in short futures positions in the past week, marking one of the largest short liquidations this year. Meanwhile, with the return of leveraged funds in large quantities, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has soared to around 30%.

After a fierce and turbulent campaign, the long-awaited general election has finally arrived. All macro assets are paying close attention (perhaps excessively) to the final poll fluctuations, in which Polymarkets' Trump victory rate dropped sharply from 67% to 55%. , consistent with other mainstream polls, currently showing a 50–50 stalemate.

The focus on the election slightly distracted the market from the non-farm payrolls data last Friday, which was significantly lower than market expectations, with only 12,000 new jobs, far below the expected 100,000. Although the recent strikes and hurricanes have partially affected this result, economists believe that the job market will continue to slow down, the number of unemployed people will rise to a recent high, and the number of people who have been unemployed for more than 15 weeks will also increase significantly. In addition, private sector employment decreased by 28,000, with manufacturing (-46,000) and professional and business services (-47,000) falling sharply. In addition, the new employment data for the previous two months were also significantly lowered, and the final data for August was only +37,000.

Key indicators: (21 Oct 4 pm Hong Kong time -> 28 Oct 4 pm Hong Kong time)
BTC/USD price stable ($68,500 -> $68,500), ETH/USD price down -7.5% ($2,725 -> $2,520)
BTC/USD year-end ATM vol down -1.6 points (55.9 -> 54.3), year-end 25d skew down -0.6 points (4.3 -> 3.7)

Overview of spot technical indicators
The BTC spot market performed very restrained last week, holding steady between $69.5k and $65k. We continuously observe that the market is trapped between the support of a long-term flag pattern and the resistance at $70.25k above. Therefore, we expect the market to remain in this range in the coming days.

Over the past week, as the U.S. election entered its home stretch and risk markets ground to a halt, both parties ramped up last-minute mainstream media campaigns, including an unprecedented three-hour Trump-Rogan interview that has more than 2,500 views on YouTube alone. Thousands of views. Moreover, perhaps in response to recent U.S. pressure, Israel's attack on Iran late Friday was more restrained than expected, providing an opportunity for Tehran to relent, which did not respond to the attack through official channels.
The lack of macro risks and the coordinated inflation trend have continued to squeeze risk premiums, US investment grade credit spreads have narrowed to near a 43-year low, and stock pricing also implies that there is almost no possibility of a recession in the future.

Key Indicators: (Hong Kong time October 14, 4 PM -> Hong Kong time October 21, 4 PM):
BTC/USD +6.6% ($64,250 -> $68,500), ETH/USD +7.9% ($2,525 -> $2,725)
BTC/USD December (end of year) ATM volatility -1.6 v (57.5 -> 55.9), December 25 d risk reversal volatility +1.4 v (2.9 -> 4.3)

Overview of Spot Technical Indicators
The spot market finally broke through the long-term flag pattern resistance last week, entering a new price range of $67–69.5k. As the election situation changes, the market has begun to position itself for Trump-related trades.

The market was relatively calm last week, and risk appetite remained. The U.S. stock market, U.S. bond yields, the U.S. dollar exchange rate, gold and BTC prices were all approaching mid-term or year highs. Economic data in the U.S. was strong, with retail sales higher than expected (actual up 0.6% m/m, control group up 0.7% m/m), and jobless claims holding steady, continuing to support the soft landing narrative.

Earnings season also worked in the market’s favor, with results from U.S. banks, Netflix and TSMC (up 9.8%) all far exceeding expectations. The SPX rose for six consecutive weeks, its best streak of gains this year, while investors remain confident in the market and corporate earnings, with options-implied earnings-day volatility about 5% below the recent average.

Key Metrics: (October 7, 4pm Hong Kong time -> October 14, 4pm Hong Kong time):
BTC/USD + 1.2% ($ 63, 500 -> $ 64, 250) , ETH/USD + 1.8% ($ 2, 480 -> $ 2, 525)

BTC/USD December (year-end) ATM volatility + 1.4 v (56.1 -> 57.5), December 25 day risk reversal volatility + 0.6 v (2.3 -> 2.9)
The price fluctuated wildly last week but generally remained in the $60–65k range.
A break above $66–66.5 K would represent a break of the top of the long-term flag pattern, with the price expected to rise to $70 K, providing further scope for more significant upside.

Last week, US economic data was relatively strong, with both CPI and PPI strengthening. The market was initially a bit shaky on the impact of the data, but ultimately determined that the trend of "core" inflation remained unchanged, and the trend of the yield curve steepening continued. US stocks hit record highs, high beta stocks and foreign exchange broke further, and the market still expects a 25 basis point rate cut in December with a probability of more than 85%. Citi's macro strategists expressed "extreme bullishness on stocks", while Goldman Sachs has been raising its target prices for US and Chinese stocks in the past few weeks.

Key metrics: (September 30, 4pm Hong Kong time -> October 7, 4pm Hong Kong time):
BTC/USD price is flat ($63,500 -> $63,500), ETH/USD is down 4.6% ($2,600 -> $2,480)
BTC/USD December (end of year) ATM volatility decreased by 0.7 v (56.8 -> 56.1), December 25th risk reversal volatility decreased by 0.4 v (2.7 -> 2.3)

Overview of spot technical indicators
Longer term, the flag resistance at the top is too strong to break through - this remains our base case for market movement ahead of next month's US election.
BTC’s rebound in the $65–66k range was blocked, and the escalating geopolitical situation caused the price to briefly fall below the previous $60–61k range support, but strong support near $60k stabilized the price.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations. The number of employed people increased by 254,000 (expected to be 150,000). The unemployment rate fell back to 4.05%. Average hourly wages remained strong, which triggered the market's question on the wisdom of the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut last month. doubts.

The reaction in the fixed income market was very intense, with the yield curve sharply flattening, short-term yields rising by 20 basis points, the 10-year yield breaking through the upward resistance level of 3.93%, and expected to exceed 4%, while terminal interest rates soared by 25 basis points. basis points to nearly 4.25%, and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled down to only 25 basis points of interest rate cuts in the next four FOMC meetings.

Key metrics: (September 23, 4pm Hong Kong time -> September 30, 4pm Hong Kong time):
BTC/USD unchanged ($63,500 -> $63,500), ETH/USD down 1.5% ($2,640 -> $2,600)
BTC/USD December (year-end) ATM volatility decreased by 2.6% (59.4 -> 56.8), December 25-day risk reversal volatility decreased by 0.5% (3.2 -> 2.7)

Overview of spot technical indicators
The market briefly broke through the key resistance level of $65.2-66k, but price action was blocked here again and the first challenge of the long-term flag resistance level has so far failed.