Good morning, brothers. BTC is going to break through the previous high after a series of ups and downs. There are opportunities in danger.

Because today is a tribulation day.

If the tribulation is passed, it will rise sharply.

If it fails, it will be dangerous.

It may fall back to $68,000-65,000.

As I said yesterday, three major events happened on the same day.

The first tribulation: a huge amount of BTC option delivery

Quarterly option delivery, worth $9.45 billion, the biggest pain point is $50,000. Because it is too different from the current price, it has little impact, but the delivery of options will cause many ignorant people to panic, leading to a market crash. There is no substantial negative impact, but there is emotional negative impact.

The second tribulation: PCE data release

The PCE data will be released at 8:30 tonight, with an expected 2.8%. If it is much higher than expected, it will be negative. It is a hammer that inflation is high and it is not suitable to cut interest rates too quickly. On the contrary, if it is not much higher than expected, it will not be a big problem.

The third catastrophe: Powell's speech

Tomorrow at 11:30 p.m., Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech. If he continues to insist on three interest rate cuts this year, the cryptocurrency market will rise

If the attitude changes, then both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market will fall. There is a high probability that interest rates will be cut three times, so don't panic.

In addition to the catastrophe, there are two good news from the on-chain data

(1) Yesterday, there was a large outflow of BTC in the exchange, and Coinbase outflowed more than 10,000 BTC.

(2) There was a net inflow of spot ETF funds, and the outflow of Grayscale GBTC funds decreased by 50%.