People often ask me how to identify support and resistance points. I often compare the candlestick chart to a chessboard, with support and resistance acting like each grid on the chessboard, which are essentially static. The candlesticks are like chess pieces, and wherever they move, they may take the next step. I keep the levels in my mind; sometimes even when I’m not watching the market, I have a rough idea of where it will retrace to. If I can’t remember the levels, I look at the Bollinger Bands (Boll), which is the most fundamental aspect.

In the morning, ETH rebounded to 4024, which is the upper band of the 6-hour Boll for ETH, since its 1-hour MACD is above the zero line, indicating a bullish structure. For retracements, I only focus on the middle bands of the Boll on the 30-minute and 15-minute charts; the 5 and 3-minute levels are too small and generally won't hold, so there's no need to look or act on them. ETH retraced from 4024 and found support exactly at the middle band position on the 30-minute chart. So, I entered a low long position here. Why did I know in advance whether it would hold? I looked at the MACD. As long as the MACD at the 30-minute level does not fall below the zero line, it will not enter a 1-hour adjustment, so the lowest point of the retracement is locked within the adjustment range of the 30-minute level.

Support points between 4000-3500: 3960, 3930, 3880, 3828, 3772, 3742, 3660, 3630, 3596, 3560, 3526.

During a strong market, the retracement mainly locks in between the two support points closest to the intraday high. This morning's high was 4024, so the retracement mainly looks at 3960-3930, because 3880 is 140 points away from 4024, and it's not easy to drop to that level during a strong market. Sometimes hitting the exact point is accurate, and sometimes it's not; entering a low long can be a few points higher. 3966 and 3936 are my own creations to prevent missing out by a few points.

I like to use some sequence numbers for entering low long positions, such as 104666, 103888, 102888, 101888, 99666, 98888, 97777, 96666, 95555, 94666, 93888, 92888; these are also close to support and resistance points. Whether it slightly pierces or hits the exact point, it’s generally around there.

As long as there is no sideways movement, the same level will generally not be reached again within the same day. Therefore, it's important to place orders in advance before the retracement. If you are unsure about the support level, enter a light position. This is better than blindly shorting.

It seems that it is no longer possible for all altcoins to rise simultaneously, as the number of altcoins has surged from dozens in the past to thousands today, and the market environment and logic have undergone significant changes. Therefore, the current situation can only be a structural market: some altcoins may rise several times or even dozens of times, while others are merely tools for harvesting retail investors. The past strategy of buying a large number of coins and waiting for a broad market increase is no longer applicable.

The craze for altcoins often erupts after Bitcoin surges, and this process can be divided into the following three stages:
What do you think?

1️⃣
Bitcoin leads the market

From Bitcoin halving in 2024 to early 2025
During this phase, Bitcoin will become the market focus, attracting most of the investment attention with its status as 'digital gold,' while altcoins will perform relatively flat.

2️⃣
Ethereum drives the development of the smart contract sector

Possibly in the first half of 2025
As institutional investors shift their attention towards infrastructure and smart contract assets, projects like Ethereum will gradually come to the forefront, driving market enthusiasm.

3️⃣
Frenzy and risk coexist

Potentially from mid-2025 to the end of the year
As retail investors flood in, the market enters a period of high volatility, with various 'meme coins' emerging rapidly and funds flowing quickly. At this time, assessing project value and avoiding traps becomes crucial.

The altcoin bull market will be a wave full of opportunities and challenges. Are you ready?

The rise lacks support from the capital side, increasing the risk of a $BTC pullback

Stimulated by Trump's renewed promise to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, $BTC broke through the high on December 5th this morning, setting a new historical high.

However, the signals from the market are not so optimistic:

1. Since December 13th, the issuance of USDT has basically stagnated, and the recent rise of $BTC has mainly been driven by news rather than capital support.

2. Since December 12th, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has gradually declined, and it has continuously shown negative values since yesterday, indicating that buying pressure from the U.S. has weakened relative to before; the recent rise is not driven by U.S. buyers.

3. The trading volume was small when Bitcoin broke upward this morning, indicating that the overall buying pressure is not strong.

4. Along with Bitcoin's rise, its open interest has also rapidly increased, leading to a currently high leverage ratio.

In summary, the likelihood of a Bitcoin pullback in the short term is greater, so it is not advisable to be too aggressive at this time.

Yesterday in the crypto world, the main focus was still on Bitcoin's performance. Bitcoin experienced a blood-sucking consolidation while maintaining a high position, with most mainstream trends weaker than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now about 1500 dollars away from its previous high, and it feels like it could break the new high at any moment. Sure enough, it broke it in the morning, but the expected short-term growth after breaking the high may be limited, and a pullback to solidify is still needed. This article is merely a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.
The prediction for Bitcoin is to consolidate around 105,000, with the daily line continuing to rise and break the high, but it won't deviate too much from the previous high, or it could be said that a significant pullback should occur before the 27th. $BNB is expected to fluctuate between 700 and 740. Overall, it was weaker yesterday, and for it to explode, we need to wait for Bitcoin to break through and then consolidate, especially since the recent airdrops haven't lifted it, and it is expected to drop a bit again at the end of the airdrop. Ethereum $ETH institutional holdings continue to increase, which is promising, and it is suitable for buying on dips, especially if Bitcoin breaks a new high, it will have even more room for growth.
Now, regarding today's daily $BTC market analysis, from the K-line perspective, the 1-hour level shows an upward trend, the 4-hour level is upward, the 12-hour level is upward, and the daily level is upward. The intraday resistance level is 107,500, and the support level is 103,000 dollars. Overall, if Bitcoin breaks the high without sufficient volume, the increase after breaking the high may not be significant, and a major pullback could occur. At this time, do not open contracts recklessly to avoid being harvested.

The coins in here need to be monitored in the future, as they may be speculated!

A super stable and simple method for trading cryptocurrencies that helps you make steady profits!

When it comes to trading cryptocurrencies, stability is key. Here’s a particularly 'simple' but reliable method that helps you capture profits and firmly control risks. Remember the three big taboos:

Three things you must not do

1️⃣ Don't chase the price: When others are panicking, we boldly enter; when others are frantically buying, we calmly observe. Learn to 'buy when it dips, sell when it rises'.
2️⃣ Don't put all your eggs in one basket: Don't bet all your funds on a single trade; diversifying risk is a fundamental practice in cryptocurrency trading.
3️⃣ Don't operate with a full position: A full position can leave you passive. There are plenty of market opportunities; keep some funds aside to flexibly seize the next opportunity.

Six tips for short-term cryptocurrency trading

1️⃣ Don't rush to buy at high prices or sell at low prices: Wait when prices are high, and don't rush to sell when they are low; wait for the trend to clarify before taking action.
2️⃣ Don't trade in a sideways market: In a sideways market, the trend is unclear, and entering or exiting can easily result in being shaken out.
3️⃣ Use candlestick charts for trading: Try buying during bearish candles and consider selling during bullish candles; go with the trend.
4️⃣ Observe the speed of rebounds based on the intensity of declines: If the decline is slow, the rebound is weak; if the decline is fast, the rebound is often more intense.
5️⃣ Pyramid building method: Buy in batches, increasing your purchases as prices drop, steadily reducing costs.
6️⃣ Sideways trading after extreme price movements: After significant rises or falls, the market usually consolidates sideways. During this time, don't sell everything at the peak, nor buy everything at the bottom; wait for a trend reversal before acting.

In the on-chain data analysis of BTC, there are two core concepts: 'timestamp' and 'price stamp'. The transparency of the blockchain allows us to observe each on-chain transaction and identify two key details: 1. The time when the chip movement occurs: timestamp; 2. The price at the time of the transaction: price stamp;

When we analyze the transition of phase trends, the data we use, such as turnover cost, profit realization, demand inflow, hot supply, etc., is mainly based on the 'price stamp'. If we want to observe and analyze the timing of the BTC long cycle, we need to use the 'timestamp' more.

Each BTC exists in a certain UTXO, and the timestamp function of UTXO means that each BTC has an age, which does not refer to the time it was mined, but rather the time from the last movement to the current time.

We can distinguish BTC of different ages by the length of time, for example, dividing them into 1 week to 1 month (1w-1m), or 1 to 2 years (1-2y), etc. Typically, we classify BTC that has not moved for more than 6 months (specifically, more than 155 days) as long-term holders (LTH) chips, while others are classified as short-term holders (STH) chips.

What is the significance of contracts?

1⃣ Unlimited opening direction: For example, spot trading can only go long, but when you are not optimistic about a coin, you can go short using contracts.

2⃣ Flexible use of funds: For example, if you want to open a position of 10,000 U, you can do it with 1,000 U at 10x leverage, or 500 U at 20x leverage, which makes it easier to add to your position.

For me personally, these two points are crucial. I really can't understand why some people, with only 10,000 U, dare to open positions of 10,000 U at 10x or 20x leverage; they are simply gambling.

Using high leverage to borrow funds multiple times your own capital for speculative activities, liquidation is common, while making money is rare.

If you want to use contracts, first understand the basics, such as leverage ratios and funding rates. If you don't know anything and end up liquidating your position, don't blame the tools for harming you.

Recently, many friends have indeed been trapped by various counterfeit brands. The original intention was to enjoy some meat and soup, but who would have thought that this old guy Dog Brother would come in with a big blow.

Today, I will briefly explain how we should effectively and correctly handle and view the situation when we get trapped.

First of all, when we enter a certain counterfeit brand, we should have at least a little understanding. Whether it is due to following the trend or a strong personal endorsement of this variety, it can serve as a reason and support for entry.

The most common mistake is putting all eggs in one basket. Generally speaking, in such cases, we should divide our funds into four parts.

This means that the position of the straight bamboo should be at 50%, which is already a state of half. Then, we can further divide the remaining 50% into two parts; one 50% equals two parts, so two 50% equal four parts.

When we lose 50% or approach 50% on a particular investment, we must take necessary measures to prevent further losses. After losing half, we can choose not to cut losses, but we should at least divide the remaining half into two parts to eliminate half and retain the remaining cost basis.

At this point, if it continues to go down, we can choose to buy more at the unchanged cost to lower the average price. Conversely, if it goes up, it means that this series of varieties has started to operate. At this time, we can choose to leverage brother stocks for long positions.

Final Stage of the Bull Market: How to Seize Key Opportunities and Embrace Future Volatility?

The current market is at the tail end of a bull market, and the next few months may be filled with volatility. According to current market trends, the peak of the bull market may occur either after Trump takes office on January 20 or around the Chinese New Year. If the trend is delayed, the adjustment period may extend to the end of April. Nevertheless, the coming months will be a critical adjustment phase for the market, and investors must be prepared.

The Future of Bitcoin: Enhanced Protection, Bitcoin Will Enter a Long-term Value Preservation Period

Even if this round of the bull market ends, Bitcoin's (referred to as 'Big Cake') performance will differ from the past. Previously, after the end of a bull market, Bitcoin experienced declines of 50% or even 80%, but with the influx of large capital from Wall Street, institutional ETFs, and foreign exchange reserves from small and medium-sized countries, Bitcoin's decline will be more strongly protected. In the future, Bitcoin will become an essential choice for wealth and corporate asset allocation, serving more as a value preservation tool for long-term holding. Every four years, the price increase will reach 2-5 times, but for beginners and retail investors, the threshold for Bitcoin will become increasingly high, and the market will be more dominated by large capital.

Risks of Altcoins: Intensified Crashes, Institutional Funds Shift Towards Bitcoin

Compared to Bitcoin, the risks of altcoins are much more severe. Especially after entering a downward cycle, the crashes of altcoins will become more rapid. Whales and institutions may frantically sell off altcoins, concentrating their funds into more stable assets like Bitcoin, resulting in severe price fluctuations for altcoins.

How to Deal with Market Volatility?

The safest strategy is to focus on the overall trend, gradually buying at the bottom and gradually selling at the top, aiming for 70-80% returns over the long term. Attempting to capture all excess returns from every wave of correction often backfires, ultimately facing high risks.

Master the Major Trend, Accurately Grasp Market Rhythms, Follow Me, and Walk at the Forefront of the Bull Market!

Which coin will be the next one?
Brothers, can we make 100 million?

1️⃣ Shiba Inu Coin 500 yuan makes 100 million, takes 7.5 months.

2️⃣ PEPE 140,000 makes 100 million, takes 11 months.

3️⃣ Ethereum 20,000 makes 100 million, takes 3 years.

4️⃣ Ripple 50,000 makes 100 million, takes 3 years.

5️⃣ Litecoin 30,000 makes 100 million, takes 5 years.

6️⃣ ADA 40,000 makes 100 million, takes 5 years.

7️⃣ EOS 30,000 makes 100 million, takes 4 years.

8️⃣ TRX 15,000 makes 100 million, takes 7 years.

9️⃣ Monero 10,000 makes 100 million, takes 6 years.

🔟 Bitcoin 50,000 makes 100 million, takes 8 years.
Which one do you think will be next?

In a bull market, sector rotation is frequent and rapid.
Preemptively positioning in popular sectors and popular coins can be said to enjoy the maximum extent of buying low and selling high.
So, what are the popular coins in the hot sectors of this bull market?
meme: doge, pepe, act, neiro, bonk, cat, floki, moodeng, pnut,
ai artificial intelligence: wld, agix, glm, fet, arkm, ctxc
rwa: ondo
solana: sol, ray, jup, jto,
ingraving: ordi, sats, bisoswap
distributed storage: stx, fil, ar,
web3.0: mask, ens
metaverse: sand, mana, axs, ygg, pixel, ol
defi lending: aave, comp
defi oracle: link, band

In trading, one must never act out of emotional impulse. The two most common manifestations are particularly deadly.

The first is losing consecutively and then losing control out of anger, disregarding points, direction, or conditions, only thinking about trading continuously. "Anger is a venting of one's own incompetence"—this couldn’t be more fitting here. I was like this back in the day; after a series of mistakes, I began to doubt myself: Have I been wrong all this time? Can I not read the market at all? Has all my effort been for nothing? From unwillingness to anger, I traded frequently to prove myself, completely losing my rationality, resulting in devastating losses.

The second is hastily trying to recover after significant losses. In this situation, one can easily trigger a gambler's mentality, ignoring points, overestimating the success rate, and even recklessly increasing positions. At this time, trading is not based on rational analysis but rather on a heart eager to recover losses, and the outcome is predictable.

Emotional trading is the biggest killer of losses. If this problem can be resolved, and if every trade is rational, planned, and executed, then the winning rate of trades can increase by at least 30-50%.

The grayscale plan considers a portfolio list of 35 cryptocurrencies.

First, categorize the 35 cryptocurrencies by track, while sorting them by market capitalization.

The DeFi track includes a total of 7 cryptocurrencies: JUP, ONDO, ENA, CORE, RUNE, AERO, PENDLE.

The underlying infrastructure track includes a total of 6 cryptocurrencies: TIA, PYTH, ATOM, AKT, UMA, UMA, NEON.

The Layer 1 track includes a total of 10 cryptocurrencies: TON, TRX, APT, INJ, ICP, KAS, VET, OM, CELO, SEI.

The Layer 2 track includes a total of 7 cryptocurrencies: OP, ARB, STRK, formerly MATIC, MNT, IMX, METIS.

The DePIN track includes a total of 2 cryptocurrencies: AR, HNT.

The AI + track includes a total of 2 cryptocurrencies: FET, WLD.

The Meme track includes 1 cryptocurrency: DOGE.

The three targets I am most optimistic about are: JUP, FET, DOGE, TON.

JUP is a DEX on the Solana chain, the popularity of memes has great support for both Ray and JUP, and Grayscale recently removed Ray while still retaining JUP, which is a choice between two children. JUP has a long-term accumulation box structure and bottom structure, and we believe that a pullback near 1.3 is a good buying point.

FET, among the three leading AI projects, has been introduced by Tao, but it is relatively high in price, while WLD has very little foundation. FET is the asset most retail investors are willing to buy. Moreover, FET has been included in the index 50, with almost full circulation.

DOGE goes without saying, the token of the national treasure Elon Musk, it could fly in any direction next year, with a target of 1 USD.

Finally, TON is a magical public chain. While others focus on TVL, it primarily looks at traffic, which could be a possible reverse black swan in this round, potentially bringing a massive influx of new investors to the crypto world. It depends on whether there will be a significant explosion in areas like gaming and memes, especially after a major breakout of playable games, TON could rise to an unbelievable level.

Among the above-mentioned tokens, in the past 30 days, FET has risen by 47.9%, JUP by 47%, DOGE by 84%, and TON by 43%. Except for DOGE, none of them have seen particularly dramatic increases.

Why do bull markets often experience sharp declines?

This is mainly due to violent market washing.

In a bull market, retail investors have a higher loyalty and stickiness. If they do not experience a sharp decline, it is difficult to wash them out of the market. Sometimes, it even requires a series of sharp declines to force most retail investors to sell off and exit.

Some may ask, why is it necessary to wash out retail investors?

Isn't it good for everyone to profit together in the cryptocurrency circle?

In reality, it is not the case. Without new capital inflows in the cryptocurrency market, if retail investors are not washed out, the main players would need to spend a large amount of funds to drive up the coin price.

Because during the price increase, once retail investors make a profit, they will choose to exit, which significantly increases the resistance faced by the main players, as if the main players are 'carrying the sedan chair' for the retail investors.

However, if retail investors are washed out through methods such as sharp declines, after they cut their losses and exit, the main players can not only realize profits but also facilitate further increases in the coin price later on.

In summary, the frequent sharp declines in a bull market stem from the high stickiness of retail investors.

Therefore, if the operational strategy is inappropriate during a bull market, the losses faced by retail investors may be even more severe.

Today, I would like to talk once again about the issue of altcoin season. Recently, the most frequently asked question is whether there will be another altcoin season this round.

My personal understanding is that the altcoin season has not officially started yet. The market share of BTC remains high and has not shown a significant decline. What we saw earlier were just antique versions of altcoins.

For example, XRP, ADA, DASH, LTC, XLM, etc. - they are not heavily weighted, and the proportion of retail investors holding them is not high. For most retail investors, the feeling of altcoins is not very strong, and the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment for altcoins has not yet risen.

When some popular coins and new coins start to rise again, that will be the signal for the arrival of altcoin season. The moment liquidity begins to transfer will be the official signal for the start of altcoin season. As of now, the altcoin season has not started yet, so be patient and wait!

A super stable and silly method for trading cryptocurrencies that helps you make money steadily!

When it comes to trading cryptocurrencies, stability is key. Here’s a particularly “silly” but reliable method that will help you capture profits and firmly control risks. Remember three major taboos:

Three things you must never do

1️⃣ Don’t chase the price: When others are panicking, we boldly enter the market; when others are frantically buying, we calmly observe. Learn to “buy when it drops, sell when it rises.”
2️⃣ Don’t put all your eggs in one basket: Never bet all your funds on a single trade; diversifying risk is fundamental to trading cryptocurrencies.
3️⃣ Don’t operate with a full position: A full position can put you in a passive situation; there are plenty of market opportunities, so keep some funds available to flexibly seize the next opportunity.

Six tips for short-term cryptocurrency trading

1️⃣ Don’t rush to buy when prices are high, don’t rush to sell when prices are low: Wait when prices are high, and don’t be hasty to sell when prices are low; only act when the trend is clear.
2️⃣ Don’t trade during sideways markets: When the market is sideways, conditions are unclear, and entering or exiting can easily lead to being shaken out.
3️⃣ Use candlestick charts for trading: Try buying during bearish candles and consider selling during bullish candles; go with the flow.
4️⃣ The speed of rebounds reflects the strength of declines: If the decline is slow, the rebound is likely weak; if the decline is fast, the rebound is often stronger.
5️⃣ Pyramid building method: Buy in batches, buy more as prices drop, steadily reduce costs.
6️⃣ Sideways consolidation after extreme price movements: After a significant rise or fall, the market usually consolidates sideways. At this time, don’t sell everything at the high, and don’t buy everything at the low; wait for a trend reversal before acting.