I feel that Inscription has been abandoned by the market. In this wave of small-coin market, Inscription has the least increase and the most severe decline. Even the leading $ORDI and $SATS are no exception. $RATS has even fallen below the low point in August.

In the case of unoptimistic market liquidity, the market will continue to differentiate, and the strong will always be strong. So I am not very confident about the subsequent performance of Inscription.

Inscription can be allocated in small quantities, but it is not suitable for heavy positions.

PNUT Market Insight: The Changing Situation under the Main Force

The PNUT market has been turbulent recently, with mixed feelings. The good news is that the main force is still actively operating in it, and all signs indicate that it seems to be quietly laying out for a subsequent wave of strong pull-ups, which makes many investors look forward to this wealth express.

However, the bad news should not be underestimated. The main force is using the "boiling frog in warm water" strategy to quietly short and close long. They deliberately create a pin market in the market to attract retail investors to follow suit. After each pin, they use a small amount of long orders to support it for a short time, create a false rebound, attract more retail investors to enter the market, and then open shorts and close longs to curb the intention of retail investors to pull the market and gradually clean up the floating chips. Today, the market is fluctuating downward, and prices are falling slightly frequently. Retail investors are miserable and despair is growing.

Judging from the market rhythm, altcoins have begun to show independent trends. In my opinion, after this deep wash in December, altcoins will most likely usher in their highlight moment in January next year - the altcoin season. Although it is painful now, if we can survive the cold winter, we may be able to embrace the warm spring. It all depends on who can hold on to the end.

$BTC has fallen below the important support line, and it is likely to continue to pull back.

$BTC has fallen below the important short-term support line of MA30, which means that the third sub-wave of the fifth wave of Bitcoin has ended on December 17, and it is currently in the fourth sub-wave adjustment wave stage.

At present, the market has given many negative signals. The capital situation is deteriorating, ETFs are being distributed on a large scale, the leverage ratio of Bitcoin is too high, and the US buying is sluggish, so Bitcoin is likely not to fall to the right place.

The adjustment wave is usually a three-wave structure of A-B-C. At present, the A wave of the fourth sub-wave has been completed or is close to completion. After the completion of A wave, it will rebound by B wave, which may rebound to the position of MA30. After the rebound of B wave, it will fall by C wave.

The end point of C wave may be the support level 1:90800 and the support level 2:85000.

Of course, if the leverage ratio is still too high when it falls to these two positions, the extreme situation of falling below 80,000 cannot be ruled out, but the probability is relatively low.

Rebound in the making
BTC just fell slightly, ETH and altcoins began to avalanche, BTC.D also rose sharply, this will be the last wave of BTC.D's rise, next year ETH and altcoins will usher in spring
BTC is around 9500, ETH is around 3350, with certain support, and has the ability to rebound
BTC will enter a correction lasting several months and a drop of more than 20% after each doubling, from this point of view, the correction is not over yet

Why is it so difficult to make money in this round of market? Here are a few points for you to see:
1. The rise is fast and short. Basically, it is over by the time you react. It is difficult to intervene in the middle
2. Even if you are on the train when the rise occurs, it is likely that you will not be able to bear it at all, and the holding experience is extremely poor
3. Once the sector switches, if you step on the wrong sector, you will be completely abandoned, and you will not even get the increase of the market
4. There is almost no general rise, it is all rotation
#USUAL持续飙升

Many people are probably like me, and I don’t understand why Ordi keeps falling.

The main reason is that its trading volume has always been so large, the contract volume is also large, and it is the leader of the Bitcoin ecosystem, so why can it keep falling?

There are so many hard-working people in the entire Bitcoin ecosystem community, and there are so many project parties building it, so why can it keep falling, and its market value is not as high as pi now?

This thing is not a simple meme, but a track-level innovation. Is that it? Even if it is a simple meme, it is the first on Bitcoin. Is it supposed to be like this?

Today's ETF
Yesterday, BTC ETF had a net outflow of $648 million (BlackRock did not disclose)
Yesterday, ETH ETF had a net outflow of $58.1 million (BlackRock did not disclose)

I mentioned earlier that when it really needs to drop, ETFs run faster than anyone else.
A few days ago, there were already some signs; BlackRock has been supporting the market.

Smart money participated in the oversold rebound and bets on the U.S. presidential election in September and October.
Since November, it has mostly been the expectation of cryptocurrency being positively affected after Trump is elected, and this has been going on for over a month.

As the Federal Reserve's hawkish comments strengthen and the pace of interest rate cuts slows, the market's focus has returned to the expectations of Federal Reserve rates, which will dominate in the future.
This round has always been a narrative trading logic, but it only exists in Bitcoin; altcoins are just a game of existing funds and a small portion of incremental funds...

Next, Bitcoin will return to a large range of fluctuations, and altcoins will experience 'mean reversion'!
Let's wait for the crypto era to begin after Trump officially becomes president!
But this will take some time~

The day before yesterday, I reminded everyone that the market might pull back, and the result was that Bitcoin really crashed, with nearly 300,000 people forced to liquidate their positions, it's heartbreaking!
In fact, this crash mainly has two reasons: one is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan for next year is not strong enough, causing the US stock market to suffer, and Bitcoin was also dragged down; the other is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said they will not buy Bitcoin and do not want to change the law.
But I think both of these issues are temporary and the market will digest them after a while.
Now Bitcoin has already dropped to around 97,000, so don’t panic too much, because this drop is mainly due to news, so in the short term it may fluctuate around 100,000. If you think the price is right, you can try to buy some spot in batches, and you can keep buying until around 80,000, but definitely don’t touch contracts!
$BNB also dropped, but it is rebounding fairly quickly now, and in the short term it may fluctuate around 700. If you are playing with spot grid quantification, you should be able to make some profit. Ethereum $ETH is in a worse situation, dropping harder than Bitcoin, and the rebound has little strength, the funding rate has also decreased a lot, if it drops further, it may be weak for a while. As for Dogecoin $Doge, everyone knows that without Elon Musk's shout-out, it’s just a decoration, but no one knows when he will shout.
Overall, I think after this adjustment, Bitcoin will still fluctuate up and down at a high level, the bull market is not over yet. However, there may still be some risk in the next few days, and the real opportunity may not come until mid to late January. So, everyone should buy some spot now to be more stable, and definitely don’t touch contracts, it’s too scary!
Now back to today’s daily $BTC market analysis, from the K-line perspective, the 1-hour level is down, the 4-hour level is down, the 12-hour level is down, the daily level is down, the intraday resistance level is 99,000, the support level is 94,000, and note that 95,000 is an important key position!!

Reviewing this round of cycles, everything has happened according to trends since BTC applied for a spot ETF, combined with the large market capitalization of VC coins and massive unlocks, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and cut cycles. My personal foolish prediction for some events in 2025 is that after Trump comes to power, BTC will continue to rise to around $200,000 to $300,000; the ETH/BTC exchange rate will drop back to around 0.01; a few quality altcoins will have room for speculation, overall altcoin gains and losses are not high, and I do not believe there will be a crazy general rise in altcoins like the last bull market. Friendly advice: Start dollar-cost averaging into #BTC from now on; I previously completely disagreed with this statement, but now it has become a truth in the market.

Do not compare the current market with the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. Although we mentioned the starting point of altcoin trends at the beginning of August, most are only short-lived bursts, resembling the Tyndall effect. At this moment, the influx of funds is not significant, retail participation is low, and the process of shaking out is quite lengthy, with narratives around established coins still dominant, all familiar faces. The key point is that the bull market cycle continues; the shakeout presents an opportunity, but its duration is hard to measure. Altcoins that have already risen significantly should not be chased higher; missing out is not a concern. The real opportunity lies in new coins that are undergoing FUD shakeouts; if this wave can conclude, and the daily chart shows a bottoming pattern and consolidation, it can be considered for entry, as it has the potential to double. The core focus points are L1, public chains, RWA, and AI domains.

The bull market is not over yet, hold on, we can win!

The sails of the bull market are still raised, friends, don't be in a hurry to say goodbye! This cycle is as logically clear as the dew in the morning light—Bitcoin, it is neither anxious nor rash, steadily advancing step by step.

And what about those altcoins? They are like mischievous children, sometimes soaring to the clouds, sometimes plunging into the depths, but every major rise is like a forgotten corner from the last round, finally welcoming their spring.

Retail investors have been thoroughly washed out, the weekly K-line is as flat as a mirror, under the winds of grand narratives, who is the real winner? Don’t rush, in this wave, we continue to pick up those forgotten low-priced chips, continue to lie flat, patiently waiting until the last frenzy of next year's bull market!

Speaking of this last frenzy, that is the real feast! The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market is already well aware; two rate cuts next year are also a certainty. But don't forget, they have significantly raised the future policy interest rate target, and inflation expectations have also risen.

Chairman Powell said that the U.S. economy is very strong, the labor market, although cooling, is still robust, and inflation is almost touching the small target of 2%.

Data speaks, in the past three months, an average of 173,000 non-farm jobs were added each month, with the unemployment rate in November dropping to 4.2%, this level is impressive! The policy interest rate has been lowered by 100 basis points from its peak, and the days of tightening are considered over. The PCE inflation expectation is 2.4% this year and 2.5% next year, although it is slightly higher than in September, it will still obediently return to the small target of 2% thereafter.

The Federal Reserve has also stated that the interest rate cuts need to be gradual, or simply pause; future policy adjustments will need to be more cautious. The federal funds rate is expected to be 3.9% by the end of next year and 3.4% by the end of 2026, both higher than in September. As for the future magnitude and timing of rate cuts, it will depend on economic data, outlook changes, and the balance of risks.

Friends, hold on! The bull market hasn't sung its climax yet, our story is still ongoing!

Why are retail investors trapped?
• Severe chasing mentality
Retail investors often hold a "get rich quick" mentality, blindly believing that a cryptocurrency will continue to rise after seeing consecutive price increases, leading them to chase prices at high levels. As a result, the main players reverse and sell, trapping them instantly.
• Lack of risk management
Retail investors generally lack awareness of stop-loss strategies. When prices adjust, they hold on to hope for a rebound to break even, but instead, they become deeply trapped as prices continue to fall.
• Lag in information
Retail investors acquire market information at a much slower speed and lower quality compared to institutions. When major funds begin to withdraw, retail investors are often still immersed in past rising sentiments, and by the time they notice something unusual, it is already too late.

Why did the market fall sharply despite the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut?

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. This move was originally in line with market expectations and should have been a positive signal. However, the market experienced a comprehensive decline. What is the reason for this?

Rate cut falls short of market easing expectations
Although the rate cut met expectations, Fed Chairman Powell's remarks disappointed the market. He stressed that future policy adjustments would be more "cautious" and clearly stated that rate cuts would need to wait for further improvements in inflation. This "hawkish yet dovish" signal directly suppressed the market's hopes for rapid monetary policy easing.

Discrepancy between market expectations and reality
Investors generally anticipated more easing to boost the economy, but the Fed's statements shattered this illusion, causing market sentiment to shift instantly. In the short term, concerns over a stronger dollar and tightening liquidity intensified selling pressure.

Macroeconomic concerns and capital flight to safety
Worries about a slowdown in global economic growth intensified. The rate cut failed to effectively boost market confidence and instead led to a further influx of capital into safe-haven assets, resulting in a simultaneous pullback in the stock, bond, and even cryptocurrency markets.

Summary of viewpoints:
The Fed's rate cut seems beneficial, but under the dual blows of insufficient market expectations and cautious statements, the market chose to digest negative signals. Future attention should be paid to policy direction and economic data, as short-term adjustments may serve as a buildup for medium- to long-term opportunities.

Written by Shen Yu: How to Earn 100 Million U from 1000 Dollars?
1. Under 100,000 USD
Learn more, take action, participate in airdrops, apply for whitelists, look for potential projects, and improve capital utilization.
2. 100,000 - 1 Million USD
Do not leverage trading, avoid contracts, find your own cryptocurrency standard, acquire tokens at low prices, and discover your own tenfold coin.
3. 1 Million - 10 Million USD
Avoid short selling, flexibly use low-leverage DeFi lending protocols, observe more, engage in arbitrage, stick to your cryptocurrency standard, pursue growth in cryptocurrency standards, and obtain stable cash flow through arbitrage, Staking, etc.
4. 10 Million - 100 Million USD
Improve your life, read more, exercise more, change your mindset and social circle, hold onto core assets, avoid major pitfalls, pursue low-risk stable appreciation and good cash flow, do not engage in contracts, do not start a business, be cautious to avoid pitfalls, maintain a certain amount of cryptocurrency standard assets and stablecoin assets, and invest a portion of your assets in promising sectors.

Have you listened to it 100 times? The era of copycat coins in the crypto market is over, BTC players have changed, ETFs have entered the market, so in the future, there will only be BTC, no other crypto assets or similar talk;

Ridiculous;

Return to common sense, common sense, still damn common sense;

Seeing players change is good, being bullish on BTC is right;

But being bearish on the altcoin season is 100% lacking in common sense;

In the long run, Bitcoin spot ETFs will guide hundreds of millions of people into the crypto market, but how could it be that these people only buy Bitcoin and completely avoid investing in any other assets?
This has never happened in any asset class market, so why would it happen in the crypto market?

This kind of rhetoric is simply lacking in common sense;

What consensus exists only in BTC, that only BTC goes up while other assets must fend for themselves, is purely a violation of common sense + a denial of human nature;

Asset rotation is the most widespread phenomenon in behavioral economics; since the professional speculation market of stocks has existed, this has been the most conventional and reasonable model guided by professional players and market makers;

The emergence of positive news + the parabolic rise in asset prices will inevitably lead to some funds immediately selling to realize profits, seeking other similar companies, guessing who the next target is, and reinvesting the profits into these companies;

This is the basic logic of high beta; if the crypto market only has BTC, then the US stock market wouldn’t need IWM, and there would be no GME or AMC;

Consensus only exists in BTC… blablabla… a bunch of arguments and analyses, but unfortunately, the market is irrational, the market is full of speculation and expectations;

After a token rises, funds will quickly flow into similar tokens, hoping to catch the next wave of increases; this is the natural behavioral law of the market, present in both ancient traditional speculative markets and emerging crypto speculative markets;

This is common sense; all professional speculative market cycles are controlled and characterized by this simple logic;

It is this kind of rule that leads to the so-called altcoin season; behind it is human nature. No matter how powerful your ETF is, how can it stop human nature from chasing up and selling down?

In one sentence: The accelerated influx of government, enterprises, and institutional investors into BTC will bring more capital overflow and will lead to a clearer altcoin season;

Hold your PEPE tight, hold your ETH high beta tight;

During this cycle, there has been a significant change in the mindset of participants in the altcoin & Bitcoin market:

1. They are more sensitive, with stronger FOMO and FUD emotions.

2. Most market participants are in a short-term trading and speculative mindset, constantly seeking short-term profits and not valuing investment attributes.

But in 2021 and 2022, most investors adopted a HOLD and buy-the-dip mentality for investing, what does this indicate?

The negative impact of quantum computers was repaired within two days,

China's ban on cryptocurrencies was repaired within a day,

The short-selling sentiment targeting MSTR was repaired within three days,

In addition, the negative impacts of Mentougou compensation, rockets, etc., only lasted for about a week, while the positive news regarding FTX compensation, Trump's return to power, etc., have yet to materialize.

I can be sure that the decline caused by Powell's hawkish remarks will be repaired in a short time, and the short-term emotional fluctuations of investors will lead to a longer bull market and more exaggerated FOMO leading to rebounds and surges.

So why might this short-term trading mentality make this bull market last longer?

The reason is simple: grasping the market is much harder than following trends for regular investments and buying the dip. Many people try to buy at the bottom during a bear market, while many others want to predict the “peak” of cryptocurrencies. Thus, under the influence of retail investor psychology, they often miss out, sell too early, or chase prices and get stuck. Alternatively, they may choose to “buy the dip” during every market correction, even when prices are not low, which raises the market's lower limit due to retail investors selling too early and “buying the dip,” while the upper limit reaches higher numbers due to retail investors chasing prices.

Remember this truth: during an uptrend, if the speculative psychology of short-term trading continues to dominate, then the duration of the bull market will also be longer.

Conversely, once the short-term trading mentality disappears and short-term traders turn back into long-term believers, we may be about to see the true peak of the bull market. I hope that by that time, you can trust your judgment and take profits in a timely manner.

A fan just chatted with me
He said that he had held on to BGB for a year, but he got off the train during the correction period from March to September this year.
He never got on the train again. He had been investing regularly and participated in the new issuance of platform coins.
Originally, many people got off the train, 80%.
Then my thighs were swollen in the past two days.
This is the bull market. If you don’t hold on to something you are optimistic about, it is the most painful to get off the train before it takes off.

What are the impacts of the 'Black Swan Event' triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut that we must recognize?

What transformed the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was originally anticipated, into arguably the biggest 'Black Swan' event in the financial markets before the end of 2024?

With a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against (Harmark leaning towards keeping the rate unchanged), the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.5%!

However, Chairman Powell stated that 'the pace of future monetary policy adjustments will slow'. According to new forecasts, there may only be two rate cuts throughout next year. Powell also pointed out that the overall economy is currently 'robust', wages are at a 'healthy and sustainable' level, and we have 'avoided an economic recession'. Furthermore, the current employment rate is not at a concerning level, and upcoming monetary policy will still look for 'economic data and inflation data'. Additionally, regarding tariff issues, he mentioned the need for patience and a careful assessment.

Moreover, Powell indicated for the first time at the press conference following the interest rate meeting that the Federal Reserve does not intend to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet.

'The Federal Reserve is not allowed to hold Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act specifies what we can own, and we do not intend to seek a change in the law. This is something for Congress to consider, but the Federal Reserve has not sought to make changes.'